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Weapons for peace?  What to expect in 2021 from the EU’s new ‘peace facility’

1/11/2021

2 Comments

 
This is the fourth blog post in a series looking at an array of issues in 2021 related to weapons use, the arms trade and security assistance, at times offering recommendations.
Picture
Roy Isbister
Picture
Frank Slijper
Just before the close of 2020, EU member states’ foreign ministries reached agreement over the set-up of the European Peace Facility (EPF) to pay for "external action having military or defence implications". It is meant to "swiftly respond to crises and conflicts" and "to empower partner countries". Its initial focus is expected to be on Africa, however its potential reach is global. While only half the size of its original ask (due to some nervousness about the basic concept and larger budgetary constraints), the EPF still provides for € 5 billion to be spent over the next seven years, including on controversial ‘train and equip’ packages. By establishing this as an ‘off-budget’ facility, member states are circumventing EU treaties under which the EU budget cannot be used to provide arms. The type of arms envisaged as being suitable for transfer under the EPF include those frequently causing the most harm and most at risk of misuse and diversion in fragile contexts, such as small arms and light weapons (SALW) and their ammunition, armoured vehicles, etc.
 
Civil society organisations, including ours, have long argued against the EPF, as recent history suggests that providing weapons and ammunition to security forces in fragile states is more likely to exacerbate than solve local and regional conflicts. As we argued, along with twelve other organisations in a 2019 letter to the EU foreign policy chief, and in a November 2020 statement from 40 civil society organisations from around the world, we have seen little evidence that military-focused ‘train and equip’ efforts lead to improved peace, justice, and development outcomes. On the contrary, experience demonstrates that this type of military assistance can harm peace and development and rarely provides its intended leverage. It often fails to address the underlying drivers of conflict and can instead be counterproductive, leading to unintended consequences, such as the violent repression of peaceful civil society actions, furthering the impunity of military forces, fomenting military-backed violence and conflict, and corruption.
 
The initial focus of the EPF is likely to be in Africa, possibly in the Sahel, where Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania and Niger have set up a joint force known as the G5 with 5,000 troops to confront jihadists. Somalia and the Central African Republic have also been mentioned as potential beneficiaries.
 
Whereas German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas calls the EPF “a fundamental investment in peace and stability that will allow the EU and its partners to effectively and flexibly address international crises”, there is reason to be wary that the EPF will be used to advance the interests of EU member states more than and potentially at the expense of the security of the people affected by crises. Time and again we have seen examples of military aid transferred to further European geopolitical interests rather than in support of the human security needs of people in fragile states.
 
Recent statements by key European figures strengthen such fears. Speaking about the EPF in February 2020, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell stated: "We need guns, we need arms, we need military capacities and that is what we are going to help provide to our African friends because their security is our security. […] We are not going to grow, we are not going to invest, we are not going to create jobs without stability". In December 2020, President Emmanuel Macron of France (which has been a leading proponent of the EPF) said in a joint press conference with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi that he “will not condition matters of defence and economic cooperation on ... disagreements (over human rights).” While this was not in the direct context of the EPF, it nevertheless raises obvious and significant concerns about how the EPF will be used.
 
Beyond its fundamental conceptual failings, the EPF as it stands now also has numerous operational shortcomings. These include a lack of transparency, both in decision-making as well as public reporting; weak and permissive safeguards against ‘misuse’; a lack of meaningful involvement of local people affected by crises and insecurity (in support of whom EPF actions will ostensibly be undertaken), at any point in the process; and a weak due-diligence framework to ensure the Facility’s activities are conducted in accordance with international law.
 
Instead of establishing a strong framework of safeguards within the EPF itself to pritoritise the protection of civilians and their rights, member states have instead chosen to push decisions on these matters downstream, such that they will be decided politically for each assistance measure under the Facility. This means that maintaining high standards on arms transfers, strict application of international law and effective oversight will be vulnerable to political pressure and excessive secrecy.
 
The unresolved weaknesses of the EPF are risking the EU’s self-styled reputation as a force for good. However, little resistance to its adoption is expected from either the European Parliament or national parliaments, if they have a say at all. Therefore, as so often, it seems it will fall to civil society to hold member states to account.

Roy Isbister heads the Arms Unit at Saferworld, based in the United Kingdom, leading 
their work on conventional arms.

Frank Slijper leads the Arms Trade project at PAX, based in the Netherlands.
2 Comments

Judicial Review redux in the UK over sales to Saudi Arabia and Coalition

1/6/2021

2 Comments

 
This is the third blog post in a series looking at an array of issues in 2021 related to weapons use, the arms trade and security assistance, at times offering recommendations.
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Sam Perlo-Freeman
It seems like we’ve been here before. This year, the Campaign Against Arms Trade (CAAT) hopes to take the UK Government to court, seeking a Judicial Review over its decision last July to continue arms sales to Saudi Arabia and its coalition allies in the war in Yemen, in spite of the devastating human toll exacted by that conflict, and the overwhelming evidence of gross and repeated violations of International Humanitarian Law (IHL) by the Coalition.

Didn’t CAAT just win a case like this a year or so ago? Yes, indeed.

The story so far: In June 2019, the Court of Appeal, overturning a previous High Court decision, ruled that the process by which the government made decisions on export licences to Saudi Arabia for use in Yemen was “irrational and unlawful”. Specifically, Criterion 2c of the government’s Consolidated Criteria on arms exports states that an export licence shall be refused if there is a “clear risk” that the equipment “might be used” for serious violations of IHL. Yet, the government had not even attempted an assessment of past patterns of violations of IHL by Saudi Arabia and the Coalition. Instead, it had relied on its ongoing engagement with and training of the Saudi government and military to conclude there was no “clear risk”.

The Court of Appeal rejected this absurd position, that a previous record of violations was irrelevant to an assessment of future risk, and the government had to stop issuing new licences to Coalition states for possible use in Yemen, and to retake all past licencing decisions on a lawful basis. (However, existing licences, including indefinite Open General licences, were not cancelled, allowing BAE Systems’ extensive support for the Saudi Air Force to continue unabated).

A year later, in July 2020, the government announced that it had completed its review, and concluded that all was well, there were only a “small number” of possible violations of IHL among all the hundreds of incidents assessed, and that these were “isolated incidents” that did not constitute any “pattern”. Therefore, there was indeed no “clear risk” of future violations, and that arms sales could continue without any concern for the potential civilian toll this might exact.

It is this latest decision that CAAT is challenging. The idea that there have only been a “small number” of violations of IHL flies in the face of a huge body of evidence from UN experts and Yemeni and international NGOs. These organisations have used highly rigorous methodologies and sources, and have access to on-the-ground witnesses, which the UK government does not. The evidence includes repeated bombings of residential areas, schools, hospitals, market places, agricultural targets, and many others, usually with no evidence of any nearby military target . According to the Yemen Data Project, almost a third of the thousands of Coalition air strikes since the bombing began in 2015 have struck civilian targets. The “patterns” of violations are plain to see.

The government have provided only the barest outline of how they have reached these, on the face of it, absurd conclusions. They have not said what constitutes a “small number” of cases, or what they mean by a “pattern”, only that the incidents occurred “...at different times, in different circumstances and for different reasons”.

The next stage of this saga – which started with CAAT’s initial application to the High Court in 2016 – is for CAAT to seek permission for a new Judicial Review - “JR2” - of the government’s review of licencing in response to CAAT’s victory in the original Judicial Review. This starts again with the High Court, and could yet go all the way to the Supreme Court. (For those not familiar with the UK court hierarchy, check this). While the full Grounds of CAAT’s application are subject to legal confidentiality, the basic premises are straightforward:

1) We challenge the conclusion that there are only a “small number” of cases of violations of IHL, based on the huge volume of evidence above.

2) We likewise challenge the conclusion that there is no “pattern” of violations.

3) We argue that, even if there were no “pattern”, this would not be sufficient to conclude that there is no clear risk of future violations. Even a single incident could constitute a serious violation of IHL, and there can very well be a risk of further “isolated” incidents even so.

Since we know so little about the government’s methodology, or even the details of their conclusions, which they say must be kept secret for reasons of national security, we have no idea what evidence the government may or may not have to support its conclusions. If we are granted permission for JR2, most of this evidence will have to be heard in Closed session, where CAAT will be represented by security-cleared Special Advocates, who cannot disclose the content of the sessions to CAAT or our regular lawyers.

We do not know, therefore, what secret evidence the government might bring to these closed sessions in an attempt to justify their conclusions. But we find it hard to believe that there is anything that could reasonably gainsay the vast weight of evidence from so many credible and respected sources.

The way it appears to us is that, whatever the evidence, and whatever courts have said about previous decision-making processes, the government is determined to find a way to interpret things that allow them to maintain its relationship with the UK’s overwhelmingly largest arms customer, Saudi Arabia, whatever mental and legal gymnastics this may require.

We hope that the courts will exhibit similar scepticism. The government must respond to our Grounds for Judicial Review by January 22nd, after which the High Court will decide if, on the basis of these submissions, we have a case. If not, we may still seek a hearing to decide if the case may proceed. If JR2 does get the go-ahead, it will be months yet before it comes to court.

The case, as they say, continues.

Sam Perlo-Freeman is 
Research Coordinator at the Campaign Against Arms Trade.
2 Comments

Victim Assistance: what can we expect in 2021?

1/5/2021

1 Comment

 
​This is the second blog post in a series looking at an array of issues in 2021 related to weapons use, the arms trade and security assistance, at times offering recommendations.
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Wanda Muñoz
Assistance to victims of antipersonnel mines and cluster munitions has been constantly evolving since it first was included as an obligation in Article 6.3 of the Mine Ban Treaty.
 
For instance, it is now agreed that:
 
  • Victim assistance (VA) is a holistic process and set of services that includes health, rehabilitation, psychosocial support, education and social and economic inclusion.
  • VA should not discriminate among survivors of different weapons, or between them and people with impairments from other causes; and it should be planned, implemented, monitored and evaluated with the full participation of survivors and other people with disabilities and their representative organizations.
  • VA should include and respond to the needs and rights of survivors, the families of those killed and injured, and affected communities; and it should incorporate gender, age and diversity considerations.
  • VA should be incorporated into larger frameworks related to the United Nations Convention on the Rights of People with Disabilities (UNCRPD) and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), among others, in order to be sustainable. For this strategy to be effective, it should incorporate referral services and monitoring mechanisms that ensure that survivors are effectively accessing their rights.
 
With this in mind, what developments can we expect on victim assistance in 2021?
 
  • We will see more and more research by survivors’ organizations. Research by the Afghan Landmine Survivor Organization (ALSO) and Fundación Red de Sobrevivientes de El Salvador on the impact of COVID, and an ongoing project by the Latin American Network of Mine Survivors on armed violence, are excellent examples and should continue to be supported by the international community.
  • The rights of people with disabilities, including survivors, in situations of emergency, will be addressed more specifically thanks to Action #40 of the Oslo Action Plan. State Parties to the Mine Ban Treaty should report on measures to ensure people with disabilities including survivors participate in, and benefit from, safety and protection programs in situations of conflict, humanitarian emergencies and natural disasters. In this regard, if State Parties to the Convention on Cluster Munitions want to facilitate synergies and ensure clarity that all survivors have the same rights, a similar Action should be included in the Lausanne Action Plan.
  • Digital accessibility will be further developed and normalized due to the ongoing movement and travel restrictions because of the COVID-19 pandemic. As more and more communications go online, and more diverse people connect via electronic platforms and services, everyone -including those involved in victim assistance- should think about how to make online communications accessible to people with different types of impairments through assistive technologies such as screen readers, magnifiers, captioning and transcriptions. The captioning and presence of a sign language interpreter in the VA meetings organized by the Implementation Support Unit of the Geneva International Center for Humanitarian Demining is an excellent example (and the captioning is useful too for those of us – the majority in those meetings- for whom English is not our mother tongue!). More thought needs to go into how we can ensure that communication technologies can be made accessible to those that are more marginalized and who often live in rural and remote areas; and to those with multiple impairments, such as deafblind persons. This can be vital, for instance, to contact essential services in cases of domestic violence; to ask for help during natural disasters; to have access to peer to peer support; or to get information about how to access rights and services, more generally.
  • Age and gender approaches will become clearer in the practices and in the reports of State Parties; and gender-based violence against women and girls with disabilities may start getting onto the table. It is a major issue that should be addressed if we really want to work towards gender equality. Indeed, UNFPA has reported that girls and women with disabilities face up to ten more time more sexual violence than those without disabilities! And, as we all know, the situation has been exacerbated during the pandemic. Gender-based violence was already brought up by women survivors and activists with disabilities from Pakistan and Nicaragua at the Jordan "Fostering Partnerships: Global Conference on Assistance to Victims of Anti-Personnel Mines and Other Explosive Remnants of War, and Disability Rights" conference in 2019, for instance; and briefly discussed with Ms. Soledad Cisternas, UN Special Envoy for Disability and Accessibility, at a recent meeting on victim assistance.
  • Meaningful synergies between the Mine Ban Treaty, the Convention on Cluster Munitions, the UNCRPD and other frameworks will continue to be strengthened. The “VA Community” now systematically includes organizations and institutions working on the rights of people with disabilities in all discussions. But it is fundamental to underline that such synergies should go hand in hand with referral services and monitoring mechanisms that can effectively make sure that survivors are truly accessing services through these other frameworks. This is particularly crucial when international financial support dedicated to VA continues a downward trend; and when there seems to be a lack of evidence that suppressing VA funds and targeted programs without such referral services and monitoring mechanisms actually works. Evidence-based research should be carried out to evaluate to what extent survivors are effectively accessing their rights through larger frameworks; and what mechanisms need to be in place for these synergies to work- based on field experience and on the actual experience of survivors themselves.
 
In 2021, those of us interested or working on victim assistance can also look forward to:
  • The First Meeting of State Parties of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, which should address victim assistance;
  • The work of Human Rights Watch and Harvard Law School International Human Rights Clinic on the victims and the consequences of the use of incendiary weapons; and
  • The international process related to the use of explosive weapons in populated areas, which should include strong victim assistance considerations.
 
Undoubtedly, 2021 will also be a challenging year. But It should be one that continues the collective work to ensure we build a more inclusive, accessible world for all – including women, girls, men and boys who are survivors, families of those killed and injured, and the communities affected by all types of weapons.

​
Wanda Muñoz is a member of SEHLAC in Mexico and an inclusion, victim assistance, and humanitarian disarmament expert.
1 Comment

Early Actions to Watch for a More Responsible U.S. Arms Trade Policy

1/4/2021

1 Comment

 
This is the first blog post in a series looking at an array of issues in 2021 related to weapons use, the arms trade and security assistance, at times offering recommendations.
​
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Jeff Abramson
We should know almost immediately if the next U.S. administration will take a more responsible approach to the arms trade. That's because a 30-day Congressional review period on the sale of 7500 precision-guided munitions to Saudi Arabia will end just after the expected January 20 inauguration of the next President. At that point, the new Biden administration would be able to issue licenses for the sale (unless Congress quickly takes blocking actions before then). If Biden keeps to expectations, he will not issue those licenses. That would be consistent with his October 2 pledge:
Under a Biden-Harris administration, we will reassess our relationship with the Kingdom, end U.S. support for Saudi Arabia’s war in Yemen, and make sure America does not check its values at the door to sell arms or buy oil.
If Biden truly wants to uphold values and make U.S. weapons recipients accountable for their actions, his administration could also take steps to slow and suspend major weapons sales to the United Arab Emirates. Less than a month ago, nearly all the Democrats in the Senate made clear their opposition to much of a $23 billion arms package to Abu Dhabi that the Trump administration is attempting to rush forward in its closing days. The UAE, which remains a key partner in the Saudi-UAE coalition in Yemen and is violating the UN arms embargo on Libya, simply should not be receiving U.S. arms at this time.
 
At present, there is not a clear indication from the incoming President on what he will do with these time-sensitive sales. Whether any of the necessary letters of offer and acceptance (LOAs) have been signed with the UAE that would put contracts in place is not clear, despite Trump administration efforts to move ahead. If not, Biden can delay concluding them. If some LOAs are signed, he can also hold off on delivery, especially for armed drones, precision-guided and other munitions that could be transferred most quickly. While the Abraham Accords offer great promise for improving regional relations in the Middle East, the reward for the accords should be peace and a lessening of prospects for conflict, not the influx of tens of billions in new weaponry.
 
How the U.S. approaches arming yet other countries in the Middle East, including Egypt, Israel, Qatar, Bahrain and more, will be closely watched as the Biden team has indicated a desire to rejoin the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (a.k.a. the Iran nuclear deal). Fueling regional arms races could make that more difficult.
 
Biden has also promised to reverse the Trump administration policy that transferred export oversight for semi-automatic and many other small arms to the Commerce Department, which ended Congressional transparency into such sales. Quick steps to return to the previous policy would also show his administration seeks a more responsible arms trade approach.
 
As the Obama presidency was nearing its end in late 2016 and early 2017, his administration held back on weapons sale to Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and Nigeria that the Trump administration later moved forward. It will be promising if Biden renews concerns about arms sales to many regimes with highly problematic human rights records that Trump has supported, including to the Philippines (amongst a long list of countries).
 
Even more telling would be actions to again support the Arms Trade Treaty. An easy early first step would be for the Biden administration to retract the letter Trump sent to the United Nations in 2019 that denied legal obligations from the United States' 2013 signature. Further efforts to honor U.S. signature to the ATT, including to seek ratification of the treaty (as embedded in the 2020 Democratic party platform), may take longer but would also show U.S. dedication to again align itself with nearly all its allies in promoting global norms on responsible arms trade.  
 
Jeff Abramson is a senior fellow at the Arms Control Association and manages the Forum on the Arms Trade
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    The "Looking Ahead Blog" features comments concerning short- to medium-term trends related to the arms trade, security assistance, and weapons use. Typically about 500-1000 words, each comment is written by an expert listed on the Forum on the Arms Trade related to topics of each expert's choosing.

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