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Explosive Violence: Projections for 2023

1/11/2023

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This is the third blog post in a series looking at an array of issues in 2023 related to weapons use, the arms trade and security assistance, often offering recommendations.
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Iain Overton
Picture
Chiara Torelli
(download as pdf)

Despite hopeful steps taken in 2022, not least the late Autumn signing by over 80 states of Ireland’s Political Declaration in Dublin on the protection of civilians from the use of explosive weapons in populated areas (EWIPA), analysis of the explosive violence which characterised this turbulent year paints a bleak picture for the year to come.
 
In total, AOAV - which records global incidents of explosive violence from reputable English language media sources - listed 4,324 incidents of explosive weapon use around the globe in 2022, and 31,162 reported casualties. 67% (20,776) of those casualties were civilians.
 
This represents a 73% increase in recorded incidents of explosive weapon use from the 2,500 incidents recorded in 2021, and a corresponding 83% increase from the 11,343 reported civilian casualties in 2021. New conflicts, in particular Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the flare-ups between Armenia and Azerbaijan and Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, compounded ongoing conflicts and armed struggles in Ethiopia, Myanmar, Syria, Yemen, Somalia, and the Occupied Palestinian Territories, amongst others. Many of these armed conflicts have created desperate humanitarian crises which will carry over into 2023.
 
More specifically, air-launched attacks rose by 17% between 2021 and 2022, from 441 to 517 recorded incidents, while ground-launched attacks increased by 187%, from 792 to 2,272 recorded incidents. IED attacks decreased by 13% between 2021 and 2022, from 1,033 recorded incidents to 897.
 
Correspondingly, explosive weapon use attributed to state actors rose by 228% in 2022, from 807 recorded incidents in 2021 to 2,644 over this past year, while incidents attributed to non-state actors remained consistent, decreasing by 3% from 1,370 incidents in 2021 to 1,334 in 2022. It seems likely, then, we will see more state-sponsored violence in the year to come and less so-called ‘terrorism’.
 
The distinction between civilians and armed combatants has continued to grow increasingly blurred. In the Myanmar context, civilians mobilised in response to the coup and the military regime’s oppression of the population, and in Ukraine, civilians are able to provide information to the Ukrainian army via apps on their smartphones. In Somalia, villagers have organised themselves into vigilante groups to resist Al Shabaab. The systematic targeting of civilian infrastructure in support of the war effort has been consistently visible in Myanmar and Ukraine. Rather than enhancing the principle of distinction and keeping civilians removed from armed conflict, the increasing ‘civilianisation’ of armed conflict, including growing reliance on private security companies, promises that civilians and civilian infrastructure will continue to be central in armed conflicts globally.
 
This is reflected in the fact that incidents of explosive weapons used in populated areas increased by 108% between 2021 and 2022, from 1,436 recorded incidents to 2,986, and civilian casualties from such rose by 86% (from 10,518 to 19,599).
 
EWIPA accounted for 69% of incidents recorded in 2022, and caused 94% of civilian casualties. AOAV recorded 668 incidents of non-state actors using explosive weapons in populated areas in 2022, compared to 731 in 2021 - a 9% decrease. On the other hand, incidents of state actors using explosive weapons in populated areas rose by 311% in 2022, from 518 to 2,129 recorded incidents.
 
With ongoing conflicts entering into 2023, the coming year looks set to continue the upward trend in incidents of explosive weapon use. Actors will remain actively embroiled in the complex, intractable conflicts which have come to characterise this decade, and in which state actors and their non-state proxies fight on multiple fronts, often in or near to populated civilian areas.
 
ZONES OF CONFLICT
There are several conflict areas, including both international and non-international armed conflicts, which are likely to continue to experience intensive explosive weapon use over the coming year, severely impacting civilians and civilian livelihoods.
 
Ukraine
AOAV recorded 1,853 incidents of explosive weapon use in Ukraine in 2022, a 1,585% increase compared to the 110 incidents recorded in 2021. Those incidents resulted in 10,381 reported civilian casualties in 2022, or a 36,975% increase from the 28 civilian casualties reported in 2021. This is likely under-reporting as AOAV only collects data from single-reported incidents as reported in reputable media, and cannot include collective assessments.
 
The USA and Europe continue to provide and pledge military and non-military aid to Ukraine, while relations between the USA and Russia have reached an all-time-low after a tense and difficult year. Deep rifts, political intransigeance, misinformation, and mistrust continue to make communication and diplomacy highly challenging. For these reasons, it is likely that Russia will maintain or even increase the intensity of air- and ground-attacks in Ukraine in 2023, continuing to target essential civilian infrastructure.
 
Ground-launched weapons accounted for 81% (1,494) of recorded incidents of explosive violence in Ukraine, and caused 76% (7,481) of reported civilian casualties, while air-launched weapons accounted for 6% (104) of incidents and 15% (1,541) of civilian casualties. Consistent ground shelling is likely to remain a defining feature of the conflict in Ukraine and cause civilian casualties on a daily basis in towns and villages, while more sporadic air-launched attacks continue to result in discrete mass casualty events.
 
Afghanistan
Following the Taliban take-over of Afghanistan in August 2021, the armed group claimed it would clamp down on extremist violence in the country, but 2022 has been a painfully injurious year for civilians. ISIS-K, the IS affiliate in Afghanistan, perpetrated deadly attacks throughout the year, and other groups continued to target both civilian and military infrastructure. Sunni muslims and educational facilities have been particularly targeted by ISIS-K and other groups.
 
While 2022 saw an 80% decrease in incidents of explosive violence in Afghanistan compared to 2021, from 458 recorded incidents to 90, and a corresponding 57% decrease in reported civilian casualties (AOAV recorded 3,051 civilian casualties in Afghanistan in 2021, and 1,312 in 2022), IEDs continue to be a leading cause of civilian harm in the country. They accounted for 64% (294) of recorded incidents and 77% (2,347) of reported civilian casualties in 2021, and 76% (68) of incidents and 85% (1,119) of civilian casualties in 2022.
 
The Taliban have so far failed to deliver on the promise of bringing stability to the country and adequately protecting minority groups and the right to education. It is consequently likely IEDs will continue to be the predominant cause of civilian harm in Afghanistan in 2023, and Sunni muslims and educational facilities will continue to be at particular risk.
 
Syria
The conflict which has plagued Syria since 2011 shows few signs of coming to a close in the coming year, and the invasion of Ukraine has made an already-complex context even more fraught. The rise of IS after their supposed defeat in 2018, the intensifying tension surrounding the Kurdish community, and the polarisation of relations between the USA, Russia, Israel and Iran, each of whom back armed groups in Syria, all speak to the intensification rather than de-escalation of the conflict. In 2022, AOAV recorded 652 incidents of explosive weapon use in Syria, compared to 709 in 2021, and 1,309 civilian casualties (down from 2,016 in 2021). This downward trend has been observable since 2017, when 1,750 incidents were recorded and 13,062 civilian casualties reported. If this pattern holds, 2023 should see a decrease in the number of recorded incidents and civilian casualties.
 
Ground-launched weapons accounted for 47% (304) of recorded incidents of explosive violence in Syria in 2022, and caused 55% (715) of reported civilian casualties, while IEDs accounted for 23% (148) of incidents and 12% (151) of civilian casualties. Air-launched weapons, which accounted for 19% (129) of recorded incidents, caused 23% (296) of civilian casualties. Given the continuing activity of both state and non-state actors across Syrian territory, both IEDs and manufactured weapons will most likely continue to cause civilian harm, with ground shelling remaining the dominant form of civilian harm in Syria in the coming year.
 
Somalia
In 2022, the Somali government intensified their fight against Al Shabaab, mobilising the broader population and leaning on US air support. Based on data recorded by AOAV in 2022, Al Shabaab and other armed groups responded by intensifying their own attacks on civilian and military infrastructure.
 
AOAV recorded 89 incidents of explosive weapon use in Somalia in 2021, compared to 95 in 2022 - a 7% increase. Correspondingly, the 1,222 reported civilian casualties recorded by AOAV in 2022 represent a 128% increase from the 537 civilian casualties recorded in 2021. At the time of writing, there has been no military breakthrough or suggestion of a diplomatic solution, leading AOAV to understand the situation will continue as is or escalate in the coming year.
 
Of note, incidents of IED attacks in Somalia decreased by 17% between 2021 and 2022, from 66 to 55 recorded incidents, but civilian casualties of IED attacks increased from 425 to 1,091, or by 158%. IED attacks consequently became more targeted and injurious in 2022 compared to 2021. Additionally, incidents of reported mine explosions, which are likely to also include directly-emplaced IEDs, increased by 650% between 2021 and 2022, from two to 15 recorded incidents, and caused 50 civilian casualties in 2022 compared to 14 in 2021. As the military conflict continues and both sides remain resistant to a diplomatic solution, the use of IEDs to target civilians and civilian infrastructure is likely to continue.
 
Myanmar
In 2022, AOAV recorded 551 incidents of explosive weapon use, a 430% increase compared to the 104 incidents recorded in 2021. Similarly, 2022 witnessed 983 civilian casualties, a 178% increase from the 353 civilian casualties reported in 2021.
 
The military coup in February 2021 devolved into a non-international armed conflict affecting the majority of the country. Established Ethnic Armed Organisations (EAOs) intensified attacks against the new military government, and civilian defence forces were formed to resist the junta, some loosely allied under the shadow National Unity Government. The military’s response has been to target villages in air strikes and ground-attacks, resulting in an escalating humanitarian crisis. Armed groups are intensifying their attacks against the military government and suspected collaborators, and demonstrating the ability to learn quickly and adapt their military strategy, while the military government continues to implement the established ‘Four Cuts’ strategy, targeting civilian networks which support the opposition.
 
Ground-launched weapons accounted for 32% (179) of recorded incidents of explosive weapon use in Myanmar in 2022, and 56% (553) of reported civilian casualties. IEDs accounted for 20% (112) of incidents, and 12% (114) of civilian casualties, while air-launched weapons accounted for 9% (52) of incidents and 21% (202) of civilian casualties. Mines accounted for 34% (185) of incidents, and 7% (202) of civilian casualties. Manufactured weapons, especially ground-launched weapons, will likely continue as the dominant form of civilian harm in the year to come as the military government maintains its current strategy and goals.
 
Pakistan
In 2022, AOAV recorded 126 incidents of explosive weapon use in Pakistan, a 26% increase from 100 recorded in 2021. Reported civilian casualties of explosive violence in Pakistan increased by 59% in 2022, from 445 to 706. Developments in Pakistan, where the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) called off the May ceasefire in November 2022, will likely lead to an increase in incidents of explosive violence, notably IED attacks. This trend was already visible in December, when AOAV recorded 54 civilian casualties of IEDs, the highest number recorded since March 2022.
 
IEDs accounted for 52% (65) of recorded incidents of explosive weapon use in Pakistan in 2022, and caused 74% (521) of reported civilian casualties. Civilian casualties of IEDs in Pakistan rose by 69% in 2022, from 308 civilian casualties of IEDs reported in 2021. Ground-launched weapons accounted for 45% (57) of incidents and 25% (173) of civilian casualties. In particular, grenades thrown by unknown non-state actors represented 38% (48) of incidents and caused 19% (134) of civilian casualties. IEDs will likely continue to cause the majority of civilian harm as a fragile peace crumbles.
 
COVID-19
Analysis of AOAV data across the years impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic shows a marked decrease in recorded incidents and civilian casualties of explosive violence. In 2020, AOAV recorded a 24% decrease in incidents compared to 2019, from 3,816 to 2,909, followed by a further 14% decrease to 2,500 recorded incidents in 2021. Similarly, there was a 43% decrease in reported civilian casualties from 2019 to 2020, from 19,401 to 11,055 followed by a 3% increase to 11,343 civilian casualties in 2021. There are myriad factors which could have influenced the way COVID-19 impacted explosive weapon use globally, from lockdowns and restrictions to cultural attitudes towards illness and the virus.
 
AOAV recorded a 59% decrease in incidents of air-launched weapon use between 2019 and 2020, from 1,305 to 529 incidents, and a further 17% decrease to 441 incidents in 2021. Similarly, incidents of ground-launched weapons decreased by 11% between 2019 and 2020, from 1,067 recorded incidents to 949, and by another 17% to 792 incidents in 2021. Recorded IED attacks dropped by 4% between 2019 and 2020, from 1,230 to 1,176 incidents, and by a further 12% to 1,033 incidents in 2021.
 
However, data collected by AOAV in 2022 shows a general reversal of this trend. As mentioned previously, recorded incidents of explosive weapon use rose by 73% between 2021 and 2022, and reported civilian casualties similarly rose by 83%. Air-launched attacks rose by 17% in 2022, while ground-launched attacks increased by 187%. IED attacks, on the other hand, have continued to decrease, dropping by 13% in 2022. This upward trend is in no small part due to conflicts which escalated or began during and after the COVID-19 lockdowns, such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the military coup in Myanmar, but it is also likely that, as restrictions continue to ease, the legal and illegal networks which facilitate explosive violence will gather momentum. As has been noted elsewhere, 2023 might prove to be a bumper year for arms sales.  Civilians be warned.


Iain Overton is Executive Director at the London-based nonprofit Action on Armed Violence (AOAV) and an expert listed by the Forum. Chiara Torelli is lead explosive violence researcher at AOAV.

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Inclusion on the Forum on the Arms Trade expert list and the publication of these posts does not indicate agreement with or endorsement of the opinions of others. The opinions expressed are the views of each post's author(s).
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Syria in 2020: the deadly legacy of explosive violence and its impact on infrastructure and health

12/17/2019

1 Comment

 
This is the third blog post in a series looking at an array of issues in 2020 related to weapons use, the arms trade and security assistance, at times offering recommendations.
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Iain Overton
Picture
Jennifer Dathan
According to Action on Armed Violence’s data, throughout the course of the conflict in Syria, about three-quarters of injurious attacks there occurred in populated areas. This devastating use of explosive weapons has led to the destruction of towns and cities across Syria. In Aleppo alone, at least 15 million tons of rubble were created by this violence by 2017. These mountains of rubble, as well as the consequential redevelopment process, pose many environmental concerns for 2020 that could have a continuing and significant impact on the health of Syria’s beleaguered population. 
Scale of the damage
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By 2017, 50% of basic social infrastructure in Syria was non-operational, mostly due to the destruction incurred during hostilities. This damage continued through 2018, including over 34,000 buildings damaged or destroyed just in Eastern Ghouta. Such harm continued across the country this year, and will do so until the conflict is brought to an end.

Estimates on the levels of rubble generated have only been carried out for Aleppo and Homs, with war damage creating 15 million and 5.3 million tons respectively. A 2019 study by REACH, a humanitarian initiative providing data from contexts of crisis, further revealed that Aleppo had almost 36,000 buildings damaged or destroyed, similar to Ghouta. Raqqa, with almost 13,000 buildings damaged or destroyed has witnessed a similar level of harm as Homs.
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Figure 1 REACH, 'Syrian Cities Damage Atlas', 2019.
Overall, about a third of homes in Syria were thought to have been damaged or destroyed by 2017.  In 2018, the UN estimated the cost of material destruction in Syria at $120 billion. By 2019, 12 million people – half Syria’s pre-war population – were displaced. To clear the debris in Aleppo alone would take six years of continuous work and 26 million ‘truck-kilometers’ – but these are academic calculations.  There is not yet the equipment, funds, or capacity to carry out this work.

Combined the devastation of Syria raises serious environmental issues and health concerns, especially for those who remain or return, and those involved in clearing the destruction.
Concerns with debris

The debris poses serious health risks, exposing those in the impacted areas to hazardous material in both the air and the ground, such as toxic smokes and heavy metal. An indication of the consequences this may have on local populations might be seen from the significantly increased cancer risk for those exposed to the release of toxic dusts in the destruction of the World Trade Center in 2001; some 43,000 people have been certified with a 9/11 related health condition, including almost 10,000 with a related cancer. More recently, in Paris, there has been concern over potential lead poisoning of the residents living nearby Notre-Dame Cathedral, after the fire and destruction in April 2019. 

Further environmental concerns for 2020 will be likely faced in things such as informal waste dumping and an increase in burning of waste as land is attempted to be cleared. In Lebanon, for instance, the debris left from the destruction of downtown Beirut in the civil war, which ended in 1990, contributed to the country’s lasting garbage problem, which – in turn - has led to pollution in the Mediterranean and caused significant air pollution for Beirut’s inhabitants.

A similar situation occurred in post-WWII Germany. Much of the 10 million tons of rubble taken from Nuremburg’s Old Town was deposited in an excavation pit. In the post-war years, waste continued to be dumped there. As few safety measures were carried out, leaching of this waste saw the connected Silver Lake become severely polluted, with lethal concentrations of hydrogen sulphide entering the lake. While the landfill has since been landscaped, forested and incorporated into the Volkspark Dutzendteich, the Silver Lake, or Silbersee, continues to be heavily polluted and at least fifty people have lost their lives after bathing in that lake.

Explosives among the debris
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The failure rate of modern weapons is estimated to be about 10%. To give a scale of the numbers of weapons that may be lying in Syria unexploded, in just five months, the US-led coalition fired 30,000 artillery shells on Raqqa. With a 10% failure rate, this leaves about 3,000 items of unexploded ordnance (UXO) from just one party to the conflict in just one city. By 2018, at least 25,000 munitions had been dropped by the US-led coalition, while Russia declared more than 39,000 airstrikes in the first three years of fighting, and improvised explosive devices are littered across Syria’s scarred landscape.  The appetite for these state actors to identify the harm their bombing campaigns have caused, let alone address this harm, is minimal.

This mountain of lethal legacy makes clearance a far deadlier task. While IEDs are likely to cause injuries, the UXO from manufactured weapons generally contains significantly higher levels of explosives and tend to result in fatalities. Those carrying out the clearance are often unprepared for the task. 

When AOAV interviewed members of the Rojova Mine Control Organisation (RMCO) in 2018, they reported significant challenges to clearance efforts in Raqqa, including a lack of large and armored vehicles to clear the rubble, something necessary due to the ammunition and booby traps among the debris. 


As such, as organizations and experts do not have the capacity or equipment to clear the debris, many civilians will carry on in 2020 conducting this dangerous work. An Amnesty investigation found at least 1,000 people killed by explosives between October 2017 and April 2018 in contaminated areas – with many more dying before reaching medical care, and so going unrecorded. ​
Looking Ahead in Syria - and Beyond
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Overall in 2020, Syria will face a mountain of conflict debris contaminating its land, air, and water, a large proportion of this caused by the use of explosive weapons in populated areas. And it is not just Syria. Iraq, Yemen, and the Philippines are among those who have also experienced such destruction in recent years. And so, as Syrians begin to clear rubble and slowly rebuild, the safety of civilians in such clearance should be a pressing priority for humanitarian agencies. This means minimizing civilians’ exposure to toxic dust, ensuring materials are disposed of in a way that minimizes contamination of soil and water supplies, and clearing UXO. Without such measures – and fast – the Syrian conflict will continue to claim more lives. 
 
Iain Overton is Executive Director of Action on Armed Violence (AOAV) and Forum-listed expert. Jennifer Dathan is a Researcher at AOAV.
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Understanding and Beginning to Address Suicide Bombing - An Interview with Iain Overton on "The Price of Paradise"

4/8/2019

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On April 4, 2019, Iain Overton's The Price of Paradise: How the Suicide Bomber Shaped the Modern Age was published.

The Forum on the Arms Trade interviewed Overton (Executive Director, Action on Armed Violence [AOAV]) to ask about key findings, ways to think about suicide bombings, and suggestions for how to approach curbing their frequency. His answers are featured in this Looking Ahead blog entry.

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Question: What are the trends you are finding?
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The most notable fact – and the reason I wrote the book – has been that of a major shift towards suicide bombing use, especially in the last decade both in terms of attacks and casualties. More than 40% of all people killed by suicide bombers since their first use against the Tsar of Russia in 1881 have happened in the last five years.
 
This is in large part because of a major spike in attacks by Salafist jihadists. Such a dark trend has, though, deep historical roots.  In the book I argue that ISIS is, effectively, the sum of the parts of previous suicide bomb campaigns.  It has elements of the utopianism of the Russia revolutionaries of the 19th century; the militarism of the Japanese kamikaze; the Islamic notion of sacrifice as developed in Iran under the Ayatollah Khomenei; the strategic logic of Lebanese terror groups; the targeting of civilians as seen by Hamas; the cult of the leadership as seen under the Tamil Tigers; and the millenarianism and global conflict as summed up by Al Qaeda.  In addition to this, though, modern day Salafist jihadist suicide bombers have a profound sense of ‘end of days’ – a millenarian logic that means, to those bombers, death is loved more than life and their sacrifice is integral to the creation of a glittering Islamic future.
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One push in the arms control and humanitarian disarmament community is to ban or control weapons from flowing into conflict areas. In addressing suicide bombings, some of those approaches might not fit. How do we need to think differently about suicide bombings?
This is right.  The suicide bomber does not fit neatly into international arms control and, as such, it is the ever-growing elephant in the room. It is the deadliest of all improvised explosive devices (IEDs), and IEDs themselves are the cause of the greatest civilian harm of all explosive weapons – at least since 2010.
 
IEDs themselves pose a fundamental challenge.  After all, only about 15% of all victims from landmines and ERW have, in recent years, been from the traditional manufactured landmine, but the global approach to landmines has not changed substantially in response to this.
 
Suicide bombs rely on improvised components.  Some component parts - such as detonators and certain chemicals – certainly need more attention in terms of international border sales control.  But it goes deeper than just precursor control.  Overall, the suicide bomber offers up an existential crisis to some degree to the UN and the disarmament community.  The solution cannot be to ban production.
 
Furthermore, modern day suicide bombers use ideology as a weapon that, in itself, poses challenges for members of the disarmament community who have impartiality rooted in their DNA. 
 
I believe one reason for the proliferation of this form of weapon is that it side-steps UN arms controls; it doesn’t fit neatly into funding streams to challenge its spread; it is largely ignored in places such as the Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons (CCW) and [UN General Assembly] First Committee; and it doesn’t have strong voices among civil society seeking to address its harm. 
 
The reasons for these short-comings are understandable and complex, but given the harm from suicide bombers, the silence that surrounds the suicide bomber in terms of high-level debate at the UN and elsewhere is deafening.  Responses to it are not coordinated and where they are, they are often under-funded and under-valued.
 
In a sense the complexities of challenges that the suicide bomber poses to the disarmament community is, in part, one of its devastating strengths. And those who say the existing processes are already in place to stop such a terrible weapon from spreading, should follow up their statement by saying that those processes are clearly not working.
What are some steps that can be taken to prevent these attacks?
There are many individual and group steps taken on the path to most suicide bombings. These are complex and diverse.  Some involve individual motivations of revenge, depression, hopelessness and fear.  Some involve groups believing in utopianism, militarism, sacrificial justice, the right to target civilians and the need to attack those they deem heretics and apostate.
 
But just as there are many steps to a suicide bomber, there need to be steps away from such as well.
 
To prevent calls by those who might use bombs to act out of revenge, nation states need to uphold human rights; they need to ensure that breeding grounds for extremism are not created in prisons, schools or mosques; they need to combat Islamophobia; to insist that the trials and punishments of Muslims accused of terror are subjected to a transparent and fair process; to address high levels of unemployment and widespread socio-economic deprivation among many Muslim communities; to create victim-assistance programmes; and to recognise the fact that many societies around the world have concerns about immigration and the failures of liberal policies on race and religion.

This list could go on. Countering extremism on all sides is notoriously hard. When the then Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon revealed the UN’s plan of action to do so in January 2016, there were over seventy recommendations made, ranging from development policy initiatives, to youth empowerment, to gender equality to human rights.


But there are four fundamental points that I believe should be addressed head-on.

The first is that the United Nations needs to up its game. A ban on suicide bombing would send out a clear message of priorities, and create political commitments and funding to address the complex issues that underpin the weapon’s rise. This needs to spread beyond demining operations – any approach has to accept suicide bombings are built upon both social and ideological grounds. And funding could help charities, businesses, trade officials, police units, UN agencies, militaries and others come together to respond imaginatively and creatively to this terrible weapon. Without there being a coherent and systemic approach to combating the cult of the suicide bomber, there is little hope the spread of this weapon will be curtailed. 

The second point is that we should seriously assess the impact Western foreign policy has had on the Middle East and North Africa to avoid past mistakes. This does not mean accepting the conspiracy-laden narratives presented by jihadists. Nor is it realistic to assume that Western policies towards the region going back for decades can be completely altered. But the inadvertent arming of future jihadi groups through the US’s and other states’ oftentimes uncontrolled supply of arms and explosives to the Middle East should be stopped. Air strikes have been shown, repeatedly, to fuel support for Salafi-jihadism, while carrying out secret drone strikes bolsters the claims the West is waging an eternal, subversive battle against Islam. These must be ended.


The third challenge lies in stopping the conflicts in which the vast majority of today’s suicide bombings and their casualties are found. Some nation states have focused on state-building activities to do this, with some in the West initiating violent regime change to induce democratisation and economic growth. They do so believing peace can be built by creating democracies, but after two decades this approach has failed to work. Partly this is because you cannot export democracy down the barrel of a gun. Partly because such interventions fail to take into account the political reality of the Middle East, specifically the Arab states. Traditional Arab-Islamic concepts of war and peace seem more based on immediate conflict resolution, seeking a return to the status quo, than wholesale transformation and reform. Peace-building initiatives need to reflect the cultural conditions of the region, and not merely act as a ‘sticking plaster’ of Western sensibilities.


Fourth, states should be profoundly aware of the failures of history when it comes to countering suicide bombers. Much of the media might seek hard and retributive justice, but history has shown that man’s ability to overstep the mark, generate mission creep and abuse human rights in the name of national security is all too predictable. The conditions to produce a suicide attack are complex: the means to counter such attacks need to be as well. 


In the end, it is in our own responses to suicide attacks where we have the most significant capacity to act. When we look back to find out how we arrived at the place we find ourselves in now, we should not be blinded by the carnage brought by terrorism, but also see the ensuing violence justified to crush that threat. We must remind ourselves how the Tsar’s blind repression of anarchists fanned the flames of tyrannical Communist revolt. How the US high command’s justification for the devastating use of nuclear weapons to defeat the feared kamikaze ushered in the Cold War. And how the calamitous invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan were decided before the dust had settled on downtown Manhattan.
Is there one takeaway from your research that runs counter to what you expect readers might believe before they pick up the book?
That suicide bombing campaigns have often had, through history, singular characteristics and these can be traced from its first inception to the modern day. That stating suicide bombing is a Muslim problem fails to recognise that the Russians invented suicidal terrorism, the Chinese invented the suicide belt, the Russians used suicide bomb planes before the Kamikaze, that the Sri Lankans were once the deadliest users of suicide bombs in the world, and that – throughout history – Christians, Buddhists, Sikhs and others have all used this form of terror. Ideology is a driving force behind suicidal terror, but that ideology is not unique to Salafist jihadism. 
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Explosive violence and the health challenges ahead for Syria

1/11/2019

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This is the eighth blog post in a series looking at an array of issues in 2019 related to weapons use, the arms trade and security assistance, at times offering recommendations.
Picture
Iain Overton
It is a hard truth that explosive weapons have a devastating impact on health – from the direct blast that can tear limbs and families apart, to the widespread destruction of health infrastructure and all the painful reverberations this has.  And nowhere else is this truism more evident than in war-torn Syria.

There, according to data by Action on Armed Violence (AOAV), not only has the use of explosive weapons caused at least 79,000 direct casualties - of which about 85% (67,000) were civilians - but it has also devastated state and civilian infrastructure, causing immeasurable harm to healthcare. In Syria, direct casualties from such violence is just the beginning.

Today, with half of Syria’s basic infrastructure non-functioning owing to the war, civilians lack access to energy systems, clean water and other basic essentials – all factors that increase the risk of the spread of disease.[1] At the same time, explosive violence has radically reduced the capacity of health facilities across the country;[2] 60% of health-care services in Syria today lie damaged or destroyed.[3] So, whilst the demand for healthcare is greater than ever, access is significantly reduced and civilians are left ‘dying from injuries and illnesses that are easily treatable and preventable.’[4]

Many medical personnel have also been killed in bombardments; 57% of Syrian medical personnel deaths between March 2011 and December 2017 were caused by explosive weapon use.[5] Others have left; by 2018, with thousands of clinicians having fled the violence, just a third of healthcare workers are said to remain in the beleaguered nation.[6] Such an exodus poses a serious problem. Many physicians are unlikely to return; for some it may be unsafe to do so, for others they may have made a new life elsewhere. In a post-conflict environment, where demand is high and resources are few, medical staff may decide that a better quality of life is to be found in the countries they fled to.[7]

The result of this is that access to care is stretched thin. Doctors’ caseloads have more than doubled,[8] while the lack of staff means there are few specialised services, particularly as donor efforts focus on emergency funding for ‘cost effective intervention’.[9]

Blast survivors are amongst the worst impacted by this reality, faced with highly limited rehabilitation services and considerable difficulties reaching care in the first place. In desperate response to this, living with suppurating wounds and mounting ill-health, many patients have been increasingly misusing antibiotics, a considerable problem in the country even prior to the conflict.[10] Evidence suggests this has likely exacerbated antimicrobial resistance in Syria[11] – causing further significant obstacles for the future.

More than 11.3 million people are said to be in need of health assistance within Syria, including 3 million with injuries and disabilities.[12] A large percentage of those injured are likely to be due to explosive weapons. Amongst 25,000 injured Syrian refugees examined by Humanity and Inclusion, 53% had been injured by such weapons.[13]

In some of the worst impacted areas, the rate of injury and disability is disturbingly high. In a survey of injury and disability across Idlib, Aleppo and Raqqa, as many as 50% of responders were said to be living with some form of disability.[14] The main cause of these injuries were airstrikes (54%), followed by other explosions (28%).[15]

​Amputations are common – one doctor commented that Syria will be left with ‘a generation of amputees.’[16] Alongside this, a Humanity and Inclusion report found that, of injured people in Syria, around 8% required an orthopaedic fitting.[17] Furthermore, with the clearance of mines and explosive remnants of war (ERW) predicted to take 50 years, blast injuries are likely to continue to occur long after the conflict ends.[18]

Amputees have life-long healthcare needs: from rehabilitation and tissue management to further associated conditions, such as ectopic bone formations and osteoarthritis. Such conditions are difficult to manage in a developed healthcare system, let alone a post-conflict environment with a severely dilapidated and destroyed healthcare infrastructure.

The ruin of civilian infrastructure in Syria, beyond health infrastructure, will also have long lasting health impacts on the population. Again, with the displacement of skilled construction workers, alongside the sheer level of redevelopment needed, it is likely that such a threat to health will linger for a long time to come. Syria will almost certainly be witness to increased rates of water-borne or similar diseases in the coming years.[19] One study found physical damage to 457 water supply and sanitation infrastructure assets, not including damage to pipe networks.[20]

The mountains of rubble and waste left in the wake of the bombardment has – and will - also provide the perfect habitat for sand flies, leading to severe outbreaks of leishmaniasis; cases there have increased in recent years by a rate of at least 150%.[21] The most common form of leishmaniasis (cutaneous) causes severe skin lesions which can leave scars and inflict serious disability, but there has also been an increase in visceral leishmaniasis, which is often fatal. [22]

The widespread devastation may also herald further health disasters ahead. When explosive weapons destroy buildings, dangerous and toxic substances are often exposed.[23] Little research has been conducted into this harm, and we are only just beginning to understand the consequences. But studies of those exposed to the toxic dust in the collapse of the World Trade Center give stark warnings. By October 2018, over 43,000 people had been diagnosed with a 9/11 related health condition – 10,000 with cancer – and more still are likely to have been affected.[24] This was also in the US, where the medical infrastructure remained intact after the terror attack. In Syria, a lack of safety equipment in clearance operations, a prolonged and widespread exposure due to uncleared waste, and a lack of health infrastructure, only increase the health risks.

Beyond the physical harm, many more Syrians will be left psychologically affected by the bombardment. One Save the Children study found that, among Syrian refugees interviewed, almost all children and 84% of adults reported that bombing and shelling was the number one cause of psychological stress in children.[25]

The outlook for psychiatric care in Syria is dire. With less than 100 psychiatrists across the whole country prior to the crisis and many of those forced to flee, it is certain that most Syrians will be unable to access the psychological support they desperately need.

Overall, the scale of civilian harm and damage to infrastructure has left a health crisis in Syria which is likely to last decades. The lack of infrastructure and staff is unlikely to be quickly remedied, whilst the harm from explosive weapons, both physically and psychologically, will in many cases require lifelong treatment. Such consequences should serve as a warning on the long-term harm from explosive weapons, and states should commit in 2019 to stop using such weapons in populated areas. That is the least that can be done in the name of humanity.

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Iain Overton is Executive Director of Action on Armed Violence

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Footnotes

[1] Interview with Omar Sobeh, Hand in Hand for Syria, WASH cluster coordinator, in Gaziantep, Turkey, October 23rd 2018.

[2] Cierra Carafice, ‘Where Do We Go From Here? The Story of Syria's Public Health System’, October 09 2017, Middle East Studies Center.

[3] Speech by Peter Maurer, ‘Even wars have limits: Health-care workers and facilities must be protected’, May 03 2016, ICRC. 

[4] WHO, ‘Seven years of Syria’s health tragedy’, March 14 2018.

[5] Raja Abdulrahim, ‘After the Gas and Bombs: The Health Crisis That’s Killing Syria’, April 17 2018, Wall Street Journal.

[6] Interview with Dr Mohamad Katoub, Advocacy Manager at Syrian American Medical Society, August 7th 2018.

[7] See Dathan, J. ‘When the bombs fall silent: the reverberating effects of explosive weapons’, May 2018, Action on Armed Violence.

[8] Interview with Dr Kinda Alhourani and Dr Tarek Al Mousa, Syrian Expatriate Medical Association, in Gaziantep, Turkey, October 22nd 2018.

[9] Interview with Dr Kinda Alhourani and Dr Tarek Al Mousa, Syrian Expatriate Medical Association, in Gaziantep, Turkey, October 22nd 2018.

[10] Interview with Dr Kinda Alhourani and Dr Tarek Al Mousa, Syrian Expatriate Medical Association, in Gaziantep, Turkey, October 22nd 2018.

[11] Esmita Charani, Senior Lead Pharmacist, Imperial College London, Faculty of Medicine, at the Global Health Forum: The impact of conflict on health care, 19 May 2018.

[12] WHO, ‘Seven years of Syria’s health tragedy’, March 14 2018.

[13] Handicap International, ‘Syria, a mutilated future’, May 2016.

[14] Presentation by Keiko Tamura, Head of Programmes, HIHFAD, Child Protection Sub-Cluster meeting in Gaziantep, Turkey, October 23rd 2018.

[15] Presentation by Keiko Tamura, Head of Programmes, HIHFAD, Child Protection Sub-Cluster meeting in Gaziantep, Turkey, October 23rd 2018.

[16] Interview with Dr Mohamad Katoub, Advocacy Manager at Syrian American Medical Society, August 7th 2018.

[17] Anne Garella, ‘‘80,000 people in Syria need a prosthesis or an orthosis’’, Humanity and Inclusion, 2015. 

[18] Wilton Park and the Foreign and Commonwealth Office, 2017, ‘Clearance of improvised explosive devices in the Middle East Monday 22 – Wednesday 24 May 2017 | WP1548’.

[19] Interview with Omar Sobeh, Hand in Hand for Syria, WASH cluster coordinator, in Gaziantep, Turkey, October 23rd 2018.

[20] World Bank, 2017, ‘The Toll of War. The economic and social consequences of the conflict in Syria’.

[21] The Lancet, ‘Leishmaniasis unleashed in Syria’, February 2017, Volume 17, pp.144-145.

[22] The Lancet, ‘Leishmaniasis unleashed in Syria’, February 2017, Volume 17, pp.144-145.

[23] Andy Garrity, ‘Conflict rubble: a ubiquitous and under-studied toxic remnant of war’, July 10 2014, Conflict and Environment Observatory. 

[24] Erin Durkin, ‘September 11: nearly 10,000 people affected by 'cesspool of cancer'’, September 11 2018, The Guardian.

[25] McDonald, A. 2017. ‘Invisible Wounds: The impact of six years of war on the mental health of Syria’s children’, Save the Children. Available at: 

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Suicide Bombings in 2017: What to Expect?

12/15/2016

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This is the third blog post in a series looking at an array of issues in 2017 related to weapons use, the arms trade and security assistance, at times offering recommendations.
Picture
Iain Overton
2016 has been labeled, repeatedly, as having been a particularly bad year. Whether it is political upheavals, refugee crises, notable deaths or economic uncertainty, the world feels a little darker, a little less stable, than it did a year ago.

It is then, perhaps, of little surprise to learn that 2016 was a particularly grim and bloody year for suicide bombings.  Between January and November, Action on Armed Violence (AOAV), a London-based charity that records the harm wrought by explosive violence (and one that I head up), listed 236 suicide attacks globally, as reported in English-language media.  This data has yet to be formally published in our annual review, because at the time of writing there remains December to include, but terror strikes so far this year have resulted in 11,621 deaths and injuries, a 19% increase on the same period in the year before. 78% (9,020) of the total harmed so far this year have been civilians.

Suicide attacks have, it seems, firmly shifted from being an exceptional weapon of war – used rarely – to one that has been almost normalised in some conflict zones.  This year, 21 countries saw at least one suicide attack at the time of writing. Of these, five countries saw civilians account for 84% of the deaths and injuries from attacks: Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Turkey.

But is there a chance that, with 2016 almost behind us, 2017 might offer some respite: a hope of less, not more, deaths from suicide attacks? Sadly, I fear not. If there is a dark prediction to be made for the next calendar year, it is that there will be more, and deadlier, suicide bombs than ever before.

Of course, it is important to note that suicide bombings, over the past six years, have not fluctuated dramatically on the global stage. Between 2011 and 2016 – the period that AOAV’s data stretches over - the year with the highest amount of suicide attacks, 2013, had 270 attacks.  In comparison, the year with the lowest, 2011, had 205. Not that major a difference.

What is concerning, though, is that suicide attacks are – it seems – becoming more expertly targeted and, in turn, deadlier. By mid-December, 2016, the average number of civilian casualties per attack stands at 38. This compares to 24 in 2014.

The very fact that the armed group Islamic State (IS) is losing territory, is also likely to cause an increase next year in suicide attacks - with large numbers of civilian casualties following. Such attacks have already taken place from Paris to Jakarta, and are both a result of top-down decision-making by IS leaders, as well as a desire among IS supporters to “avenge” the Caliphate.

In 2016 alone, IS has claimed more than 1,000 “martyrdom operations.” Such figures are difficult to verify and are probably overstated, but the group has certainly increased suicide operations, both as a result of lost territory, and also through their defense of Mosul. There is no reason to think 2017 will be any less. IS boasts a long list of willing martyrs for the cause.

In addition, in Syria both IS and other groups such as Jabhat Fateh al-Sham have, throughout the conflict, gradually shifted their suicide attacks from predominantly targeting armed actors to targeting civilians. It is likely that populated areas lived in by people perceived as supporters of the Syrian regime will continue to be targeted in 2017.

Iraq may also see a bleak 2017. Admittedly, although Iraq is the one country in the world that has been most heavily affected by suicide bombings, levels of attacks there today are lower than they were between 2005 and 2007. However, in 2016, suicide bombings in Iraq increased for the first time since 2013; compared to last year civilian casualties of suicide bombings were up by 118%. Although much of this is due to the Mosul operation, it is likely that Iraq will see more suicide attacks in 2017. The country is still IS’ home-base, and is also the country where the group has traditionally committed its most lethal suicide bombings, such as the Khan Bani Saad suicide bombing in July 2015 and the Baghdad bombing in July 2016.

The arrival of IS into Afghanistan may also mean more large-scale suicide bombings in urban centers there, both as reactionary attacks but also as a result of rivalry with the Taliban. While, more broadly, Afghanistan has so far been relatively spared from sectarian violence, IS suicide attacks there appear to have been increasingly conducted along sectarian lines. If this trend continues, it does not bode well.

Libya could also have a worse year for suicide attacks.  The ongoing civil war, along with the fact that IS has lost important territory in country (and as such might resort to defensive suicide bombing methods), combined with the presence of ever-fresh jihadi recruits from next-door Tunisia, means that it is likely to continue to see suicide bombings in 2017.

Turkey has already seen several high profile suicide bombings by both IS and Kurdish separatists, both of which the country is now fighting in Syria. As a result of this intervention, Turkey is likely to continue to see suicide bombings in 2017.

Pakistan’s future is also uncertain. Despite “successes” in combatting terrorist groups in the country in recent years, there was a 114% increase in civilian casualties of suicide bombings in 2016, compared to the same period in the year before. It is likely that, as certain groups in Pakistan continue to be pushed back, more retaliatory suicide attacks may occur there in 2017.

Finally, there is the ever-present threat of suicide attacks in Western Europe. IS will “likely” carry out new terror attacks across Europe, including suicide bombings - a fear expressed by the EU-wide law enforcement agency, Europol. Intelligence services estimate that dozens of jihadis under IS’ direction are already in Europe alongside other “lone wolf” terrorists who have no direct contact with the group. While this might be scare tactics designed to bolster national security funding, if the recent past is anything to go by, suicide bombings will likely remain part of Europe's future.

Yet, despite these dire predictions, there is a frustrating lack of focused, constructive energy in the global community to address the rising use of suicide bombings. The use of aerial explosive weaponry to target insurgents has, repeatedly, been shown to act as a strong recruitment driver for terrorist groups.  As AOAV regularly records, almost 90% of those killed or injured in air strikes in populated areas are civilians, and their surviving relatives are all too often radicalised following the explosive blast.

Suicidal violence is not, though, guaranteed. But it requires dynamic action to prevent future rivers of blood.

Far more needs to be done in recording the impact of suicide strikes; more needs to be done in understanding how to prevent would-be bombers getting their hands on pre-cursor materials; Islamic scholars and Imams, as well as politicians and diplomats, need to be more vocal in their condemnation of the indiscriminate use of explosive weapons against civilians; and funding needs to be found to ensure that civil society, businesses, trade officials, police units, UN agencies, militaries and any other key component of the counter-IED networks come together to respond imaginatively and creatively to this terrible weapon.

Failing to do so will result in 2017 being as terrible a year as 2016 has given us so far.

Iain Overton is Executive Director at Action on Armed Violence
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