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U.S. Security Assistance to Non-State Actors: Unintended Consequences and Long-term Instability

5/18/2018

1 Comment

 
This is one of six essays in the May 2018 report "Addressing Non-State Actors: Multiple Approaches" (see full report). Each essay is the independent work of its authors. ​​
Binder
Seth Binder
Watson
Robert Watson
Since the Cold War, the United States has been the dominant arms supplier in the world, providing billions per year in arms to well over 160 countries.[i] Most of the time these weapons go to the security forces of a sovereign state, but occasionally the United States has seen it in its interest to provide arms to non-state actors (NSAs), primarily rebel groups not sanctioned by their domestic state to take up arms. Despite the justifications for providing such lethal aid in the short-term, overwhelmingly the aid has not proven successful, resulting in unintended consequences and long-term instability.
 
There are justified reasons the United States may decide to provide security assistance to non-state actors, including support for counterterrorism operations, the responsibility to protect innocent civilians, pushback against foreign invasion, as well as other possibilities. For example, when the United States began providing the mujahideen with weapons in the 1980s, it not only helped protect innocent Afghans from callous attacks by Soviet forces, it increased the cost of the Soviet invasion until they ultimately withdrew a decade later. At a relatively low financial cost to the United States, it was able to protect lives and weaken its rival superpower.
 
However, even if we take the most generous view of U.S. intentions when providing security assistance and weapons to NSAs, several unintended consequences can and have occurred. In Afghanistan,[ii] the United States trained and armed fighters who later went on to join al-Qaeda and other terrorist organizations, which ultimately led the United States to return in 2001 where it is still fighting in a nearly two-decades long war at the cost of trillions of dollars.[iii]
 
More recently, the United States has been providing more than $2 billion[iv] in weapons and training to Syrian rebels, with an additional $300 million requested for fiscal year 2019.[v] The rebels’ specific task has been to help the U.S. coalition defeat the Islamic State (ISIS), but while Kurdish militias have seen success on the battlefield against ISIS, numerous reports have documented human rights abuses[vi] by U.S.-trained Syrian rebels[vii] and the diversion of U.S. provided weapons.[viii] This has perpetuated the fighting and fostered new grievances among the victims. Yet, this shouldn’t come as a surprise. U.S.-supported Nicaraguan rebels, commonly referred to as the Contras, were frequently accused of human rights abuses,[ix] and trafficking drugs and weapons.[x] But they weren’t the only ones. U.S.-supported UNITA rebels in Angola[xi] and the mujahideen in Afghanistan have also received credible allegations of human rights abuses.[xii]
 
Much of this comes down to the unavoidable principle-agent problem associated with the provision of arms to other forces. As the principle, the United States only has so much control over the Syrian rebels (the agent) receiving the equipment and training. The agents have different concerns, objectives, and goals, making it near impossible to guarantee arms will not be diverted, power abused, or objectives carried out.[xiii] Yet, US involvement makes it culpable.
 
In addition, security assistance to non-state actors is an inherently destabilizing activity. The weapons and training provided grant the recipients an extraordinary capacity for violence. Security assistance can be a powerful tool, but it is only as effective as the recipients’ capacity to receive, contain, and direct these resources toward positive ends. States often struggle to fully implement the institutional frameworks required to prevent the misapplication of assistance; the challenge for non-state actors can be even greater.[xiv]
 
The problem of capacity is compounded by the fact that defense articles and training have a life span that can far exceed the scope of their intended use.[xv] Arms and ammunition linger in the communities that receive them. While U.S. policy, priorities, and interests turn to other areas, the arms and training remain, potentially creating long-term instability. Arms provided to the Contras in Nicaragua have been used by drug traffickers; UNITA rebels in Angola returned to the “battlefield”;[xvi] and many of the mujahideen turned to international terrorism.
 
In part, this is why relations with neighboring states can be strained when providing NSAs with security assistance. But it is not the only reason. By injecting defense articles outside the pre-existing state structures, the United States undermines the “monopoly of the legitimate use of violence within a given territory.”[xvii] This monopoly provides the foundation for state institutions, and underpins a state’s legitimacy domestically and internationally. Unilaterally arming non-state actors upends domestic and regional security relationships already strained by conflict.
 
For example, relations with Turkey, a major NATO ally who sees the provision of arms to the Kurds as a direct threat, have been severely damaged by U.S. assistance to the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). This has led to U.S. allies fighting each other in Syria, detracting from the mission’s original objectives and further destabilizing the region.[xviii] Former-President Obama promised there wouldn’t be mission creep,[xix] but in Syria the United States is providing training and operations support, U.S. equipment to various state and non-state actors involved in the conflict, and has attacked the Syrian regime, Russian mercenaries, and Iranian-supported militias. Now the United States is coming dangerously close to being involved in direct fighting against Turkey. All risking a further conflagration of the region.
 
Whether U.S. assistance has turned to short-term responses, such as U.S. support for Libyan rebels, or the long-term engagement evidenced by current U.S. engagement in Afghanistan, problems have arisen. In 1984, a Congressional resolution stated that it would be “indefensible to provide the freedom fighters [mujahideen] with only enough aid to fight and die, but not enough to advance their cause of freedom.”[xx] Now, the US is providing the “Vetted Syrian Opposition” with just enough assistance to defeat ISIS and anger nearly every ally and foe alike, but not enough assistance to decisively end the conflict against al-Assad and the Syrian regime. Despite the different policy approaches, security assistance has perpetuated and further complicated the wars, while doing nothing to address the endemic problems at the heart of the conflict.
 
International attempts to regulate the arming of non-state actors have been restrained by the lack of an international consensus on the definition of a “non-state actor.” The term is broad enough to include a range of groups, including armed rebels, warlords, private security companies, terrorist organizations, and even “semi” recognized states such as Taiwan and Kosovo. In 2001, John Bolton, then U.S. Under Secretary for Arms Control and International Security, rejected an effort to ban military aid to non-state actors defined as “irresponsible end-users of arms” on the grounds that this would “preclude assistance to an oppressed non-state group defending itself from a genocidal government.”[xxi]
 
While a definition may not determine whether a group is a responsible end-user, it would give states a better idea of their own responsibility in providing weapons, and the risks associated with doing so. The Canadian delegation to the United Nations Programme of Action to Prevent, Combat and Eradicate the Illicit Trade in Small Arms and Light Weapons in All Its Aspects, argued for a blanket ban on arms transfers to non-state actors, and attempted to include language in the preamble that would have emphasized states’ responsibility in providing arms to non-state actors. However, due to U.S. opposition, neither effort made it into the final document.
 
One solution could be to forgo any UN consensus, and instead push for regional agreements. The ECOWAS Convention of 2006[xxii] and the Kinshasa Convention of 2010 define non-state actors and prohibit the transfer of small arms and light weapons to them. The ECOWAS Convention defines NSAs as “any actor other than State Actors, mercenaries, armed militias, armed rebel groups and private security companies.” By comparison, the Kinshasa Convention defines “non-state armed groups” as any group that “is not part of the formal military establishment of a state, alliance of states or intergovernmental organization and over which the state in which it operates has no control.”[xxiii] While the definitions vary significantly, they both address the risk of arming NSAs, and contribute to a customary definition for the groups themselves. Regional arms control regimes like these could discourage interstate meddling, in that parties would have a vested interest in preventing proliferation in their neighborhood(s) and could provide a unified voice against outside intervention.
 
Ultimately, U.S. provision of security assistance to non-state actors carries enormous risk and should only be executed as policy after thorough cost-benefit analysis that weighs short-term benefits against the likely unintended long-term consequences.  Mitigation strategies must also be considered to address the inevitable consequences if in fact assistance is initiated. Non-state actors’ lack of institutional capacity, the lifespan of materiel provided, and the general inability of the United States to align its objectives with those of its non-state proxies exposes the tension between security assistance’s long and short-term goals. An internal CIA study reportedly notes that covertly arming and training rebels has rarely worked in the past.[xxiv] America’s recent covert and overt support in Syria hasn’t seemed to fair much better. While these policies have the potential to achieve short term objectives, they create lasting and long-term consequences that have too often failed to achieve peace and stability.

​Seth Binder is an independent researcher focused on U.S. security assistance and arms sales. Robert Watson is a member of the Forum on the Arms Trade’s Emerging Expert program.

---


[i] Arms Transfers Database, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, (accessed April 3, 2018), .

[ii] Jason Burke “Frankenstein the CIA Created,” The Guardian, January 17, 1999.

[iii] Cost of War Project, Brown University’s Watson Institute, November 2017.

[iv] Security Assistance Monitor data on U.S. security aid to Syria, (accessed April 1, 2018).

[v] Office of the Secretary of Defense, Department of Defense Budget Fiscal Year 2019 (2018, February) Counter-Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) Train and Equip Fund (CTEF).

[vi] “We Had Nowhere Else to Go: Forced Displacements and Demolitions in Northern Syria,” Amnesty International, October 2015.

[vii] “Under Kurdish Rule: Abuses in PYD-Run Enclaves in Syria,” Human Rights Watch, June 19, 2014.

[viii] “US-Allied Syrian Rebel Officer Handed Trucks and Ammunition to al-Qaeda Affiliate,” Associated Press, September 23, 2015.

[ix] Doyle McManus, “Rights Groups Accuse Contras: Atrocities in Nicaragua Against Civilians Charged,” Los Angeles Times, March 8, 1985.

[x] “Drugs, Law Enforcement and Foreign Policy,” Subcommittee on Terrorism, Narcotics and International Operations, Senate Foreign Relations Committee Report, December 1988.

[xi] Edward Girardet, “Angolans Describe Human Rights Abuse During Civil War,” The Christian Science Monitor, June 3, 1983.

[xii] Patricia Gossman, “The Forgotten War,” Human Rights Watch, February 1991.

[xiii] Kareem Shaheen, “US-Trained Syrian Rebels Refuse to Fight al-Qaida Group After Kidnappings,” The Guardian, August 6, 2015.

[xiv] An Vranckx, “Containing diversion: arms end-use and post-delivery controls,” GRIP, April 2016.

[xv] Paul Holden, Indefensible: Seven Myths That Sustain the Global Arms Trade, Zed Books, February 2017.

[xvi] “Peace in Angola When Savimbi,” Afrol News, April 11, 2001.

[xvii] Max Weber, “Politics as a Vocation,” 1918.

[xviii] Carlotta Gall, “72 Turkish Jets Bomb US-Backed Kurdish Militias in Syria,” New York Times, January 20, 2018.

[xix] Micah Zenko, “Your Official Mission Creep Timeline of the US War in Syria,” Foreign Policy, October 19, 2015.

[xx] “Afghan Freedom Fighters: United States Support,” 98 Statute 3499, U.S. Congressional Resolution, October 4, 1984.

[xxi] Paul Holtom, “Prohibiting Arms Transfers to Non-State Actors and the Arms Trade Treaty,” United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research (UNIDIR), 2012.

[xxii] ECOWAS Convention on Small Arms and Light Weapons, Their Ammunition and Other Related Materials, June 14, 2006.

[xxiii] Central African Convention for the Control of Small Arms and Light Weapons, their Ammunition and all Parts and Components that can be used for their Manufacture, Repair and Assembly, Kinshasa, April 30, 2010.

[xxiv] Mark Mazzetti, “C.I.A. Study of Covert Aid Fueled Skepticism About Helping Syrian Rebels,” October 14, 2014, New York Times.
1 Comment

The technology of research

5/29/2015

17 Comments

 
Nicholas MarshNicholas Marsh
Research on the arms trade has been transformed. In the mid-1990s a main activity involved sitting in libraries pouring over dusty books, periodicals and press clippings. Some people uncovered information through fieldwork.  Then the internet arrived, and with it a deluge of information from news sites and online databases. In addition to the patience and persistence needed to hunt through libraries or interview sources, a key skill for arms trade research became the ability to manage and present in an easily comprehendible way huge quantities of textual and numerical data.  

By 2011, authors working with the Small Arms Survey wrote about how video clips uploaded to YouTube and other forms of social media “contain a wealth of information that is beginning to shape public understanding of the arms trade.” Personally, I had used YouTube and other sites to locate images of arms used in the Libyan civil war, including weapons supplied by foreign powers. However, when a few of the small band of arms trade researchers got together we realized that social media presented huge problems. Watching videos and searching through them for information was very time consuming; and geo-locating and verifying their contents even more so. We earnestly wondered whether a funder would provide a grant for someone to spend all their time looking at YouTube videos, searching Facebook and tracking other online sources.

Fortunately, the solution came as a new group of researchers – often blogging in their spare time – dedicated the time and developed the methods needed to analyze videos and other material found via social media. This was made possible by a key new element of the technology of research – the ability via social media to rapidly create networks, share information, and even raise money.  Eliot Higgins and the others publishing at Bellingcat are among the most prominent today at this, and they are joined by other researchers who have made globally important findings from sources of information that didn’t exist just over a decade ago.

While our knowledge has certainly advanced, there are still very important areas that are unknown or at best opaque.  Outlined below are areas where the need remains to develop new technologies of research, without forgetting the contributions of written sources, databases, social media, and fieldwork.

Beyond the low hanging fruit. Arms flows into and within the wars in Libya, Syria, Iraq and Ukraine have understandably received a lot of attention, but there are many other wars where information from social media, databases and written sources  is much more difficult to obtain or  analyze – in particular sub-Saharan  Africa. Fieldwork has always been an answer, but safety and more importantly resource constraints mean that it can only be carried out in a fraction of the places where it is needed. We need to develop methods to obtain more information on arms flows into and within the more difficult places to research.

Outside warfare. Most attention is understandably focused upon warfare, but by far the greatest proportion of violent deaths are homicides. The methods and flows of arms to areas with high levels of criminal violence are much less understood than to war zones with comparable levels of violent death. Analysis of these requires new data and innovative methodologies to analyze it. Some important work has been done, but much more is needed.


Picture


The Homicide Monitor interface panel. Photo: Screengrab

Repressive regimes and their weapons. An area that has been studied for a long time, but certainly needs more attention, is transfers to repressive governments. As well as items that have been studied for decades – weapons, ammunition, police equipment, and torture materials ­– a focus is needed on new technologies such as equipment used for mass surveillance. 

Deeper questions on what matters and works. Finally, and most importantly, research has mostly focused upon working out what is being transferred to whom and how those transactions take place. These are important goals, but the information created needs to be used to answer larger questions. After over two decades of international attention on the conventional arms trade, culminating in the Arms Trade Treaty, we still need to know much more about:

  • What is the size of the illicit arms trade? Is it increasing or decreasing, and if so where?
  • Are the many national and international policy initiatives concerning the authorized trade and arms holdings actually working? If so, under what circumstances?
  • What kinds of arms transfers have the greatest influence upon violent death, injury, repression, corruption and other forms of harm? 

Answering these requires not just more and better data, but greatly improved technologies of research in order to analyze results. Answering them is needed as research on the arms trade shouldn’t just be about working out who sent what to where, but how the arms trade affects the world around us.

Nicholas Marsh is a Research Fellow at the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO).


17 Comments

Trends in illicit trafficking

3/11/2015

1 Comment

 
Nicholas MarshNicholas Marsh
Bucking the role of shadowy arms dealers found in the popular imagination, governments and non-state groups fighting in recent high profile wars – e.g. Syria, Iraq, Ukraine, Libya – get their arms from states. Supplies for rebels often come from looting state arsenals or from not-even-covert shipments organized by friendly states. Governments receive military aid or generous financing terms. Much work has been expended on conflict economies, and they are still important, but in many contemporary wars weapons can be obtained for free. The prospect of more great power confrontation raises the concerning likelihood that weapons supplies to proxies will more frequently be used as a means to try to obtain foreign policy goals.  
 
In recent years homicide accounts for over ten times more violent deaths than warfare. Regions affected by high levels of homicide, which are often as violent as war zones, also experience high levels of illicit firearms. Crime is the most important global driver of illicit firearms ownership, use and trafficking. The acquisition of these arms is via purchases from retail shops of lawfully imported or locally produced guns; pilfering from government stocks held by the police and armed forces; and illicit cross-border trafficking. Authorized exports have been increasing to many of these countries. 
  
Hitherto research on illicit trafficking has mainly been conducted via case studies and field work. This important work will be augmented by the systematic collection and analysis of data. Doing so will enable researchers to track global and regional trends (albeit with important caveats about data quality and comprehensiveness), and better understand the economic and political foundations of the illicit arms trade. 

Nicholas Marsh is a Research Fellow at the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO).

1 Comment

Efforts with strong civil society engagement: Arms Trade Treaty, Killer Robots, Explosive Weapons in Populated Areas

3/11/2015

1 Comment

 
Jeff AbramsonJeff Abramson
At least three efforts in which civil society is playing a critical role are set to see progress in the coming months: implementation of the Arms Trade Treaty; banning so-called killer robots; and preventing the use of explosive weapons in populated areas.

With the first Arms Trade Treaty Conference of States Parties to occur in August and many decisions still to be made about the operation of the treaty, states should now move expeditiously to establish robust import and export regimes – where they are lacking – and be explicit about how they are applying treaty criteria to arms transfer decisions. The civil society-led ATT Baseline Assessment Project and Control Arms’ ATT Monitor are already up and running, and should provide a good starting point from which to aid and measure these steps. 

The Campaign to Stop Killer Robots continues to engage all countries on the need to preemptively ban the development, production and use of fully autonomous weapons systems. In January, concerns over such weapons were expressed at the World Economic Forum in Davos. In April, civil society members will be active at a second informal meeting of experts under the Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons (CCW) to discuss emerging "lethal autonomous weapons systems."


Finally, civil society groups and UN agencies continue to raise alarm about the use of explosive weapons with wide area effects in populated areas and their subsequent harm to civilians in Syria, Ukraine and other conflict areas. Organizations working under the International Network on Explosive Weapons have documented statements of concern by at least 40 countries and point to an expert meeting – the third of its kind – to be held in Vienna in September as an opportunity for countries to begin development of an international commitment to stop the practice.

Jeff Abramson is the founder of the Forum on the Arms Trade and Program Manager of Landmine and Cluster Munition Monitor.

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