Security Assistance Middle East

Security Assistance - Middle East

A large volume of weapons flows into the Middle East and North Africa, with both the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia making SIPRI's list of top five importers of major weapons and the United States committed to Israel having a qualitative military edge over other countries in the region. In light of the rise of the Islamic State (ISIS), the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Syria under the Assad regime and Russia's intervention, upheaval in Yemen and U.S. support to the Saudi-led coalition, suppression of freedoms in Eqypt, instability in Libya, and other regional crises, many global arms suppliers are grappling with the appropriateness of military assistance, in the form of weapons and training, as well as direct military action in the region. These issues beget the questions of to what degree and how the United States should assist in resolving conflicts in the area.

Hillary Clinton
(Democrat)

Expected support for assistance, in the form of military assistance including weapons, training, and direct military action in the region.

Islamic State (ISIS)
Clinton has called for a “no boots on the ground” approach to defeating ISIS. In its place, Clinton has advocated for military assistance to forces fighting ISIS, as well as U.S. airstrikes. During all three Presidential Candidate Debates in late September and October, she described a plan of air strikes against ISIS and support for Arab and Kurdish partners in a planned offensive against ISIS.

At the Commander-in-Chief forum in September, Clinton specified that she would continue to support the Iraqi military through special forces, enablers, surveillance, intelligence and reconnaissance help. In the Democratic Candidates Debates in February 2016, December and October 2015 and at an AIPAC conference in March 2016, Clinton also emphasized the need to defeat ISIS with the help of an American-led air campaign and support to Arab and Kurdish troops on the ground, without ground troops.

Libya
Clinton has also been supportive of military assistance and air strikes in lieu of sending ground troops in Libya. In early September at the Commander-in-Chief Forum, Clinton reinforced her position supporting U.S. airstrikes in Libya, touting efforts to put together a coalition including NATO and the Arab League.

Iran
At the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) Conference Clinton commented on the possibility of the U.S. reacting with force, if necessary, against Iran if they violate commitments not to seek, develop or acquire nuclear weapons. In this case she was not clear on whether that force would include boots on the ground, a coalition, or military assistance.

Israel
Regarding Israel, Clinton said in a statement on the U.S. memorandum of understanding that she is fully committed to American security assistance to Israel. At the March 2016 AIPAC Conference, Clinton also said that she will commit to ensure Israel maintains a military edge. Such a military edge would include assistance in defense technology, such as bolstering Israeli missile defenses and tunnel detection technology for preventing arms smuggling.

Donald Trump
(Republican)

Expected support for assistance, in the form of military assistance including weapons, training, and direct military action in the region.

Islamic State (ISIS)
Trump is often quoted as being critical towards security assistance. In a meeting with the Washington Post Editorial Board in March Trump suggested that we are spending money on other countries that we are on ourselves, taking a disapproving perspective given the current state of U.S. debt. However, the candidate has also expressed plans for involvement in ongoing conflicts.

At the Commander-in-Chief Forum in September as well as the second Presidential Debate, Trump commented that he wants to “knock the hell out of ISIS”. It is unclear what military means this would include, and if this would include security assistance to forces in Iraq and Syria. Trump is also expected to want to cooperate with Russia regarding ISIS, a sentiment which he most recently expressed at the same Forum.

Trump has also criticized previous exit strategies and ongoing operations. In the Commander-in-Chief Forum he said the handling of Iraq is what lead to ISIS. In the Forum and at the Presidential Candidate Debate in late September 2016, he spoke about a plan to “take the oil," as he claims it acts as a lifeline to ISIS. This would appear to imply direct military measures to intervene in ongoing operations, but it is unclear what military measures this would include.

Libya
At the same Forum, Trump criticizes not the bombing of Libya, but the post-management effects in Libya. The candidate does not say how he would have done it differently. His criticism may imply that he would instead perhaps have intervened militarily. What further supports this assumption is Trump’s comments that were highlighted by Clinton at the first Presidential Candidate Debate, where she reminded that he had said he would blow the ships out of the water for taunting U.S. ships.

Iran
At an AIPAC conference in March 2016, Trump said he would “stand up to Iran,” and dismantle its terrorist network. It is unclear how this would take place and what means would be employed to do so.

Israel
Regarding policy towards Israel, Trump said at the AIPAC conference that he will cooperate closely with Prime Minister Nethanyahu to bring stability to the region. In February 2016 at the CNN Republican candidates debate, he said he is pro-Israel, but in the same interview he also said that he is motivated to negotiate peace in Israel, stating that this can be done best without taking sides.

Additional notes
Trump’s criticism during the Presidential Candidate Debate of Clinton’s open plans to defeat ISIS, along with his own ‘secret plan’ have implications regarding transparency. It is thus likely that his policy regarding strategy in the Middle East would not be as transparent as Obama’s administration, or that of Clinton.

Hillary Clinton Quotes

October 19, 2016 - Third Presidential Candidate Debate

"Well, I am encouraged that there is an effort led by the Iraqi army, supported by Kurdish forces, and also given the help and advice from the number of special forces and other Americans on the ground. But I will not support putting American soldiers into Iraq as an occupying force. I don't think that is in our interest, and I don't think that would be smart to do. In fact, Chris, I think that would be a big red flag waving for ISIS to reconstitute itself.The goal here is to take back Mosul. It's going to be a hard fight. I've got no illusions about that. And then continue to press into Syria to begin to take back and move on Raqqa, which is the ISIS headquarters."

"I am hopeful that the hard work that American military advisers have done will pay off and that we will see a real -- a really successful military operation. But we know we've got lots of work to do. Syria will remain a hotbed of terrorism as long as the civil war, aided and abetted by the Iranians and the Russians, continue.
So I have said, look, we need to keep our eye on ISIS. That's why I want to have an intelligence surge that protects us here at home, why we have to go after them from the air, on the ground, online, why we have to make sure here at home we don't let terrorists buy weapons. If you're too dangerous to fly, you're too dangerous to buy a gun."

"And, yes, we do need to go after Baghdadi, and -- just like we went after bin Laden, while you were doing "Celebrity Apprentice," and we brought him to justice. We need to go after the leadership."

WALLACE: Secretary Clinton, you have talked about -- and in the last debate and again today -- that you would impose a no-fly zone to try to protect the people of Aleppo and to stop the killing there. President Obama has refused to do that because he fears it's going to draw us closer or deeper into the conflict.
And General Joseph Dunford, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, says you impose a no-fly zone, chances are you're going to get into a war -- his words -- with Syria and Russia. So the question I have is, if you impose a no-fly zone -- first of all, how do you respond to their concerns? Secondly, if you impose a no-fly zone and a Russian plane violates that, does President Clinton shoot that plane down?

CLINTON: Well, Chris, first of all, I think a no-fly zone could save lives and could hasten the end of the conflict. I'm well aware of the really legitimate concerns that you have expressed from both the president and the general. This would not be done just on the first day. This would take a lot of negotiation. And it would also take making it clear to the Russians and the Syrians that our purpose here was to provide safe zones on the ground. We've had millions of people leave Syria and those millions of people inside Syria who have been dislocated. So I think we could strike a deal and make it very clear to the Russians and the Syrians that this was something that we believe was in the best interests of the people on the ground in Syria, it would help us with our fight against ISIS.

October 9, 2016 - Second Presidential Candidate Debate

"It’s also important I intend to defeat ISIS, to do so in a coalition with majority Muslim nations."

"And we have to work more closely with our partners and allies on the ground."

"I would not use American ground forces in Syria. I think that would be a very serious mistake. I don’t think American troops should be holding territory, which is what they would have to do as an occupying force. I don’t think that is a smart strategy."
"I do think the use of special forces, which we’re using, the use of enablers and trainers in Iraq, which has had some positive effects, are very much in our interests..."

"There are a lot of very important planning going on, and some of it is to signal to the Sunnis in the area, as well as Kurdish Peshmerga fighters, that we all need to be in this. And that takes a lot of planning and preparation."

"I would also consider arming the Kurds. The Kurds have been our best partners in Syria, as well as Iraq. And I know there’s a lot of concern about that in some circles, but I think they should have the equipment they need so that Kurdish and Arab fighters on the ground are the principal way that we take Raqqa after pushing ISIS out of Iraq."

September 26, Presidential Candidate Debate

“…We also have to intensify our air strikes against ISIS and eventually support our Arab and Kurdish partners to be able to actually take out ISIS in Raqqa, end their claim of being a Caliphate."

September 14, Statement on U.S.-Israel Memorandum of Understanding

“America’s commitment to Israel’s security must always remain rock-solid and unwavering ... As President, I will work with our partners to implement this agreement, ensure that Israel always maintains its qualitative military edge, and take our alliance to the next level."

September 7, Commander-in-Chief Forum

“We have to defeat ISIS. That is my highest counterterrorism goal. And we’ve got to do it with air power. We’ve got to do it with much more support for the Arabs and the Kurds who will fight on the ground against ISIS. We have to squeeze them by continuing to support the Iraqui military… We’re going to work to make sure that they have the support - they have special forces, as you know, they have enablers, they have surveillance, intelligence, reconnaissance help. They are not going to get ground troops. We are not putting ground troops into Iraq ever again. And we’re not putting ground troops into Syria. We’re going to defeat ISIS without committing American ground troops.”

“With respect to Libya, again, there’s no difference between my opponent and myself. He’s on record extensively supporting intervention in Libya, when Gadhafi was threatening to massacre his population. I put together a coalition that included NATO, included the Arab League, and we were able to save lives. We did not lose a single American in that action. And I think taking that action was the right decision. Not taking it, and permitting there to be an ongoing civil war in Libya, would have been as dangerous and threatening as what we are now seeing in Syria.”

March 21, 2016, AIPAC Conference

“Our work together to develop the Iron Dome saved many Israeli lives when Hamas rockets began to fly.
I saw its effectiveness firsthand in 2012, when I worked with Prime Minister Netanyahu to negotiate a seize fire in Gaza and if I'm fortunate enough to be elected president, the United States will reaffirm we have a strong and enduring national interest in Israel's security."

"I believe we must take our alliance to the next level. I hope a new 10-year defense memorandum of understanding is concluded as soon as possible to meet Israel's security needs far into the future."

“I will make a firm commitment to ensure Israel maintains its qualitative military edge.
The United States should provide Israel with the most sophisticated defense technology so it can deter and stop any threat. That includes bolstering Israeli missile defenses with new systems, like the Arrow 3 and David's Sling, and we should work together to develop better tunnel detection technology to prevent arms smuggling, kidnapping and terrorist attacks."

“ If I'm elected, the leaders of Iran will have no doubt that if we see any indication that they are violating their commitments not to seek, develop or acquire nuclear weapons, the United States will act to stop it and that we will do so with force if necessary."

“I've laid out a plan to take the fight to ISIS from the air, on the ground with local forces and online where they recruit and inspire. Our goal cannot be to contain ISIS; we must defeat ISIS."

February 4, 2016 MSNBC Democratic Candidates Debate (This is a rush transcript, for full video see youtube link below.)

“…We have to support the Arab and Kurdish fighters on the ground who are actually doing the fighting…. We will not send American combat troops back to either Syria or Iraq – that is off the table. But we do have special forces, we do have trainers, we do have the military personnel who are helping with the airstrikes that the United States is leading so that we can try to take out ISIS infrastructure, take out their leadership."

“And I think that, given the threat that ISIS poses to the region … it is important to keep the Iraqi army on a path where they can actually take back territory, to work with the Sunni tribes …. To work with the Kurds to provide the support, but they’re doing the fighting. We’re doing the support and enabling. And I also think we've got to do more to stop foreign fighters, foreign funding and take ISIS on online, as well as doing everything necessary to keep us safe at home."

“We just have to keep -- try to get more support for those people on the ground in Syria and Iraq who have to actually physically take the territory back."

“I am against American combat troops being in Syria and Iraq. I support special forces. I support trainers. I support the air campaign. And I think we're making some progress. I want to continue to intensify that, and that's exactly what the president is doing.”

December 19, 2015 ABC Democratic Candidates Debate

“I have a plan that I’ve put forward to go after ISIS. Not to contain them, but to defeat them. And it has three parts. First, to go after them and deprive them of the territory they occupy now in both Syria and Iraq. Secondly, to go after and dismantle their global network of terrorism. And thirdly, to do more to keep us safe. Under each of those three parts of my plan, I have very specific recommendations about what to do.
Obviously, in the first, we do have to have a — an American-led air campaign, we have to have Arab and Kurdish troops on the ground. Secondly, we’ve got to go after everything from North Africa to South Asia and beyond."

“…we have to support Sunni-Arab and Kurdish forces against ISIS, because I believe it would be not only a strategic mistake for the United States to put ground combat troops in, as opposed to special operators, as opposed to trainers, because that is exactly what ISIS wants."

November 19, 2015 Speech on National Security and the Islamic State at the Council on Foreign Relations

“Baghdad needs to accept, even embrace, arming Sunni and Kurdish forces in the war against ISIS. But if Baghdad won’t do that, the coalition should do so directly… “And we need—one thing that I believe we haven’t done yet is make it clear to Baghdad that we are going to be arming Sunni tribes and Kurds if they don’t, because at some point they have to be in the fight."

[On Syria and Iraq] “Look, as I said, we should be sending more special operators. We should be empowering our trainers in Iraq. We should be, you know, leading an air coalition using both fighter planes and drones. We have a lot of work to do to be able to, you know, really decimate ISIS in Iraq and in Syria. But we’ve got to work with the Kurds on both sides of the border.”

October 13, 2015 CNN Democratic Candidates Debate

(42:20 – 43.03): “Specifically in Syria it is important…. To make it clear that (Russia has) to be part of the solution to end that bloody conflict and to provide safe zones so that people don’t have to be flooding out at the rate they are. I think it’s important too that the United States make it very clear to Putin that it’s not acceptable for him to be in Syria creating more chaos, bombing people on behalf of Assad. We can’t do that if we don’t take more of a leadership position, which is what I’m advocating."

(45:35) “We don’t want American troops on the ground in Syria … what I said is that we need to put together a coalition, in fact it was something I worked on at the sate department to do. Yes it should include Arabs, people in the region."

(50:30) “We are already flying in Syria just as we are flying in Iraq… what I believe, and why I have ad advocated a no fly zone, is because I’m trying to figure out what leverage we need to get Russia to the table"

(54:45) “Our response, which I think was smart power at its best, is that the U.S. will not lead this we will provide essential unique capabilities that we have, but the Europeans and the Arabs had to be first over the line. We did not put one single American soldier on the ground in Libya. I think president Obama made the right decision at the time."

August 10, 2014 The Atlantic Interview

“The failure to help build up a credible fighting force of the people who were the originators of the protests against Assad—there were Islamists, there were secularists, there was everything in the middle—the failure to do that left a big vacuum, which the jihadists have now filled.”

Donald Trump Quotes

October 19, 2016 - Third Presidential Candidate Debate

"And frankly, when you look at her real record, take a look at Syria. Take a look at the migration. Take a look at Libya. Take a look at Iraq. She gave us ISIS, because her and Obama created this huge vacuum, and a small group came out of that huge vacuum because when -- we should never have been in Iraq, but once we were there, we should have never got out the way they wanted to get out. She gave us ISIS as sure as you are sitting there. And what happened is now ISIS is in 32 countries. And now I listen how she's going to get rid of ISIS. She's going to get rid of nobody."

"Let me tell you, Mosul is so sad. We had Mosul. But when she left, when she took everybody out, we lost Mosul. Now we're fighting again to get Mosul. The problem with Mosul and what they wanted to do is they wanted to get the leaders of ISIS who they felt were in Mosul."

"About three months ago, I started reading that they want to get the leaders and they're going to attack Mosul. Whatever happened to the element of surprise, OK? We announce we're going after Mosul. I have been reading about going after Mosul now for about -- how long is it, Hillary, three months? These people have all left. They've all left."

"He now also aligned with Iran, who we made very powerful. We gave them $150 billion back. We give them $1.7 billion in cash. I mean, cash. Bundles of cash as big as this stage. We gave them $1.7 billion.
Now they have -- he has aligned with Russia and with Iran. They don't want ISIS, but they have other things, because we're backing -- we're backing rebels. We don't know who the rebels are."

"Now we can talk about Putin. I don't know Putin. He said nice things about me. If we got along well, that would be good. If Russia and the United States got along well and went after ISIS, that would be good. I never met Putin. This is not my best friend. But if the United States got along with Russia, wouldn't be so bad."

October 9, 2016 - Second Presidential Candidate Debate

"I will knock the hell out of ISIS. We’re going to defeat ISIS. ISIS happened a number of years ago in a vacuum that was left because of bad judgment. And I will tell you, I will take care of ISIS."

"I think it would be great if we got along with Russia because we could fight ISIS together, as an example."

September 26, 2016 Presidential Candidate Debate

“[Clinton has been] telling the enemy everything you want to do. No wonder you've been fighting -- no wonder you've been fighting ISIS your entire adult life.
“I said it to you once, had we taken the oil -- and we should have taken the oil -- ISIS would not have been able to form either, because the oil was their primary source of income. And now they have the oil all over the place, including the oil -- a lot of the oil in Libya, which was another one of her disasters."

CLINTON: “The other day, I saw Donald saying that there were some Iranian sailors on a ship in the waters off of Iran, and they were taunting American sailors who were on a nearby ship. He said, you know, if they taunted our sailors, I'd blow them out of the water and start another war. That's not good judgment."
TRUMP: “That would not start a war.
CLINTON: “That is not the right temperament to be commander-in- chief..."
TRUMP: "No, they were taunting us."

September 7, Commander-in-Chief Forum

“I think I would have a very, very good relationship with Putin. And I think I would have a very, very good relationship with Russia..."

"And, you know, the beautiful part of getting along, Russia wants to defeat ISIS as badly as we do. If we had a relationship with Russia, wouldn’t it be wonderful if we could work on it together and knock the hell out of ISIS? Wouldn’t that be a wonderful thing?"

“We’re going to make America great again. But, Matt, we’ve also got to make America strong again. And right now, we are not strong. Believe me. We have a depleted military. We have the greatest people in the world in our military. But it is very sadly depleted.”
“Part of the problem that we’ve had is we go in, we defeat somebody, and then we don’t know what we’re doing after that. We lose it, like as an example, you look at Iraq, what happened, how badly that was handled. And then when President Obama took over, likewise, it was a disaster. It was actually somewhat stable. I don’t think could ever be very stable to where we should have never gone into in the first place.
But he came in. He said when we go out — and he took everybody out. And really, ISIS was formed. This was a terrible decision. And frankly, we never even got a shot. And if you really look at the aftermath of Iraq, Iran is going to be taking over Iraq. They’ve been doing it. And it’s not a pretty picture. I’ve always said, shouldn’t be there, but if we’re going to get out, take the oil. If we would have taken the oil, you wouldn’t have ISIS, because ISIS formed with the power and the wealth of that oil.”

“[Clinton] made a terrible mistake on Libya. And the next thing, I mean, not only did she make the mistake, but then they complicated the mistake by having no management once they bombed you know what out of Gadhafi. I mean, she made a terrible mistake on Libya. And part of it was the management aftereffect. I think that we have great management talents, great management skills.”

March 21, 2016, AIPAC Conference

“When I'm president, I will adopt a strategy that focuses on three things when it comes to Iran. First, we will stand up to Iran's aggressive push to destabilize and dominate the region.
Iran is a very big problem and will continue to be, but if I'm not elected president, I know how to deal with trouble … Iran is a problem in Iraq, a problem in Syria, a problem in Lebanon, a problem in Yemen and will be a very, very major problem for Saudi Arabia…”

“Secondly, we will totally dismantle Iran's global terror network, which is big and powerful, but not powerful like us…. Iran is the biggest sponsor of terrorism around the world and we will work to dismantle that reach, believe me, believe me. Third, at the very least, we must enforce the terms of the previous deal to hold Iran totally accountable and we will enforce it like you've never seen a contract enforced before, folks, believe me.”

“When I become president, the days of treating Israel like a second-class citizen will end on day one…. I will meet with Prime Minister Netanyahu immediately. I have known him for many years and we'll be able to work closely together to help bring stability and peace to Israel and to the entire region.”

March 21, 2016 Meeting with the Washington Post Editorial Board

“We’re a debtor nation. How you going to get rid – let me ask you – how are you going get rid of $21 trillion in debt?...We’re spending that to protect other countries. We’re not spending it on ourselves. Because we have, we have armor-plated vehicles that are obsolete. The best ones are given to the enemy. We give them to our allies over in the Middle East. A bullet shot in the air and they immediately run and the enemy takes over. I have a friend whose son is in his third, his third tour over in Iraq. He’s over in, I mean he’s a very special kid, he’s a great kid. But he’s over in the Middle East, and, uh, Afghanistan, different parts of the Middle East, actually. And he said to me, I said to him what do you think. And he said, it’s so sad."

"He said the enemy has our equipment – the new version — and we have all the old version, and the enemy has our equipment, because they get into a fight with the so-called people like the Freedom Fighters, you know the whole Syrian deal, where we’re sending billions and billions of dollars worth, and they capture the equipment…So we have wounded warriors, with no legs, with no arms, because they were driving in stuff without the armor. And the enemy has most of the new ones we sent over that they captured."

February 25, 2015 CNN Republican Debate

“President Obama has treated Israel horribly... I have very close ties to Israel. I've received the Tree of Life Award and many of the greatest awards given by Israel. As president, however, there's nothing that I would rather do to bring peace to Israel and its neighbors generally. And I think it serves no purpose to say that you have a good guy and a bad guy. Now, I may not be successful in doing it. It's probably the toughest negotiation anywhere in the world of any kind. But it doesn't help if I start saying, "I am very pro-Israel." It doesn't do any good to start demeaning the neighbors, because I would love to do something with regard to negotiating peace, finally, for Israel and for their neighbors. I can’t do that s well as a negotiator, I can’t do that as well if I’m taking sides. That being said, I am totally pro-Israel.”