| This blog post is one in a series of blogs and videos looking at an array of issues in 2026 related to weapons use, the arms trade and security assistance, often offering recommendations. |  Tabitha R Agaba |
As 2025 draws to a close, arms sales are likely to increase in 2026 because of the increasing geopolitical tensions, from Cambodia and the Philippines in Asia, to the recent calls by some European countries like Germany and France for their young men to join the military in preparation for a possible confrontation with Russia, and the threat of war on Venezuela by the United States.
In recent weeks, the U.S. has threatened violence against Nicholas Maduro's government in Venezuela over what it calls a war on drugs. The Trump administration has previously accused the Maduro government as source of drugs that flow into the U.S.. These claims have been followed by the seizing of an Venezuelan oil tanker by the U.S. in addition to the closure of the Venezuelan airspace by the Trump administration in November. In August the U.S. started deploying air and naval forces near the Venezuelan border, including the world's largest aircraft carrier the USS Gerald R. Ford, which is deployed 950km away from the Venezuelan coast according to the BBC (as of December 5).
The conflicts in Sudan, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), and South Sudan have persisted in 2025 without a foreseeable solution in 2026, with the M23 armed group in the DRC gaining more ground in Eastern DRC and Uganda having promised to join the conflict should M23 take over Uvira, which it did last week. The fighting in the DRC automatically creates a need for arms whether illegally acquired or not.
The conflict in Sudan has intensified between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Army (SAF); the United Arab Emirates has been accused of supporting the RSF with weaponry. Important to note is that the UAE, Rwanda, Thailand and the DRC haven't ratified the Arms Trade Treaty, an agreement that guides arms sales, transfers, end use control and overall international trade of arms.
The French president, Emmanuel Macron asked youth above 18 years of age to sign up for a 10-month military training amidst threats of war from Russia; this is a program expected to start in 2026. The president noted that this is a program whose main objective is to respond to threats from Russia. This voluntary military is not limited to France alone as other countries like Germany have followed suit. In November 2025, Germany voted to introduce voluntary military service.
Such calls not only prepare individuals for war but also put pressure for increased military spending in preparation of war. In 2026 there's likely to be an increase in the manufacture and purchase of arms as European countries prepare for a possibility of war with Russia.
These are just a few of the possible conflicts likely to arise in addition to the already existing ones. These developments are important to note because they will contribute to military spending in 2026 and some of the conflict actors are non-signatories to the ATT, which is a key component in arms control, and arms diversions are likely to continue.
Despite the presence of controls such as the UN arms embargo and the ATT, countries often divert arms to conflict zones such as Chad and the UAE's support for the RSF or Uganda’s arms diversion to South Sudan.
An overview of 2026 on the arms trade highlights the gaps that could easily be utilized for countries to access arms despite the numerous measures in place to mitigate them.
In recent weeks, the U.S. has threatened violence against Nicholas Maduro's government in Venezuela over what it calls a war on drugs. The Trump administration has previously accused the Maduro government as source of drugs that flow into the U.S.. These claims have been followed by the seizing of an Venezuelan oil tanker by the U.S. in addition to the closure of the Venezuelan airspace by the Trump administration in November. In August the U.S. started deploying air and naval forces near the Venezuelan border, including the world's largest aircraft carrier the USS Gerald R. Ford, which is deployed 950km away from the Venezuelan coast according to the BBC (as of December 5).
The conflicts in Sudan, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), and South Sudan have persisted in 2025 without a foreseeable solution in 2026, with the M23 armed group in the DRC gaining more ground in Eastern DRC and Uganda having promised to join the conflict should M23 take over Uvira, which it did last week. The fighting in the DRC automatically creates a need for arms whether illegally acquired or not.
The conflict in Sudan has intensified between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Army (SAF); the United Arab Emirates has been accused of supporting the RSF with weaponry. Important to note is that the UAE, Rwanda, Thailand and the DRC haven't ratified the Arms Trade Treaty, an agreement that guides arms sales, transfers, end use control and overall international trade of arms.
The French president, Emmanuel Macron asked youth above 18 years of age to sign up for a 10-month military training amidst threats of war from Russia; this is a program expected to start in 2026. The president noted that this is a program whose main objective is to respond to threats from Russia. This voluntary military is not limited to France alone as other countries like Germany have followed suit. In November 2025, Germany voted to introduce voluntary military service.
Such calls not only prepare individuals for war but also put pressure for increased military spending in preparation of war. In 2026 there's likely to be an increase in the manufacture and purchase of arms as European countries prepare for a possibility of war with Russia.
These are just a few of the possible conflicts likely to arise in addition to the already existing ones. These developments are important to note because they will contribute to military spending in 2026 and some of the conflict actors are non-signatories to the ATT, which is a key component in arms control, and arms diversions are likely to continue.
Despite the presence of controls such as the UN arms embargo and the ATT, countries often divert arms to conflict zones such as Chad and the UAE's support for the RSF or Uganda’s arms diversion to South Sudan.
An overview of 2026 on the arms trade highlights the gaps that could easily be utilized for countries to access arms despite the numerous measures in place to mitigate them.
Tabitha R Agaba is a freelance writer and researcher based in Uganda, and a member of the Emerging Expert program.
Inclusion on the Forum on the Arms Trade emerging expert program and the publication of these posts does not indicate agreement with or endorsement of the opinions of others. The opinions expressed are the views of each post's author(s).
Inclusion on the Forum on the Arms Trade emerging expert program and the publication of these posts does not indicate agreement with or endorsement of the opinions of others. The opinions expressed are the views of each post's author(s).
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