| This blog post is one in a series looking at an array of issues in 2025 related to weapons use, the arms trade and security assistance, often offering recommendations. |  Sam Perlo-Freeman |
The UK is one of the world’s largest arms exporters – exactly where in the rankings depends on which figures you look at. The UK is only 7th according to SIPRI data on major conventional weapons exports, but in financial terms, the UK is probably somewhere between 2nd and 4th alongside France and Russia. At any rate, an important player.
By far the most controversial, though certainly not the largest, aspect of the UK arms trade at present is its arms sales to Israel, most of which go indirectly via the US, especially components for the F-35 combat aircraft, which Israel is using in Gaza, and of which 15% by value is made in the UK. Last September, the new Labour government suspended certain licences for use by the Israeli military, having concluded that Israel was not adhering to international law in Gaza, but made a special ‘carve-out’ from its own export licensing criteria to allow the continued indirect supply of F-35 components via the US and other partner nations. The government claimed that such indirect supplies could not be stopped without jeopardising the whole F-35 supply chain. This decision faces a legal challenge brought by Palestinian NGO Al-Haq and activist legal group GLAN, and will likely be heard in spring. The latest government submission to the court makes clear that there is no new evidence of Israeli violations in Gaza that would lead the government to change this position, an extraordinary admission, placing the UK’s international commitments under the ATT, IHL, and even the Genocide Convention as lower priority than maintaining the F-35 supply chain.
However, while the F-35 and arms sales to Israel are rightly the focus of most current attention, of far greater significance for the UK arms industry – and also raising serious questions regarding human rights, peace, and security – are prospects for sales of the Eurofighter Typhoon combat aircraft, jointly produced by BAE in the UK, Leonardo in Italy, and Airbus in Germany and Spain.
Last year, trade unions warned that production of the Typhoon at their plant in Warton, Lancashire, may end before long if there are not significant new orders, creating a gap before full-scale production of the planned 6th-generation Tempest fighter gets under way. New orders from Germany, Italy, and Spain have helped alleviate these concerns, although this will not involve final assembly in the UK. Nonetheless, both the UK government and BAE are actively pursuing export customers as well, from their traditional customer base in the Middle East - in particular, Qatar, Türkiye, and Saudi Arabia.
Qatar ordered 24 Typhoons in 2018, the last of which should be delivered in 2025, and has reportedly recently agreed to buy 12 more, although a contract has not yet been signed. It is unclear exactly what Qatar would want them for, given that it also has fleets of French Rafales and US F-15s, faces no external threats, and may lack the capacity to operate that many aircraft, is a good question. Qatar is rated by Transparency International Defence & Security as having a ‘critical’ risk of corruption in arms procurement, and given BAE’s grimy record in this area, this deal should face stringent due diligence in relation to corruption, including via possible offset deals.
Türkiye has long been seeking to modernise its combat aircraft fleet, especially since Greece recently acquired Rafales from France. Türkiye was kicked out of the F-35 programme by the US in 2019 for buying Russian air defence systems. It is now acquiring 40 F-16s instead, but is also very interested in acquiring up to 40 Eurofighters. For a long time, Germany was blocking this due to Türkiye’s human rights record and role in Syria, but has lifted this objection, and negotiations for a deal have begun.
However, the Turkish state remains highly authoritarian and repressive, especially towards its Kurdish minority. It remains in occupation of parts of north-east Syria, where it and its militia allies have been accused of serious abuses. Türkiye has continued a steady bombing campaign against Kurdish groups in both Iraq and Syria, causing high civilian casualties. Moreover, following the regime change in Syria, Türkiye may well be looking to pursue further military action against the Kurdish autonomous region of Rojava in the north-east, and indeed its allied militias have already launched attacks. The risk therefore that Eurofighters sold to Türkiye might be used in these conflicts is high.
Saudi Arabia is reportedly considering various options for increasing its combat aircraft fleet, including the Eurofighter, the Rafale, and the F-15, and most recently the Turkish domestically-produced Kaan stealth fighter currently under development. During the war in Yemen, German objections would have stopped any new sales of Eurofighters (though Germany allowed continuing supplies of spare parts for the existing Saudi fleet), but as with Türkiye, they have now lifted these objections as the truce in Yemen in place since April 2022 continues to hold.
However, the truce remains fragile, with numerous violations, and the conflict in Yemen remains far from solved. Saudi Arabia’s horrific human rights record has if anything worsened, with the country carrying out a record 345 executions in 2024. The record of corruption in UK arms sales to Saudi Arabia is also egregious.
In short, all 3 potential Middle Eastern customers for the Eurofighters raise serious red flags, although none of these will likely be of the slightest concern to the UK government, desperate as it will be to maintain the BAE production line until Tempest gets off the ground. If all goes their way, 2025 could be a bumper year for BAE, and in any event it will be a busy year for those of us seeking to advocate for ethical restraint in arms exports.
Sam Perlo-Freeman is Research Coordinator at Campaign Against Arms Trade in the UK.
Inclusion on the Forum on the Arms Trade expert list and the publication of these posts does not indicate agreement with or endorsement of the opinions of others. The opinions expressed are the views of each post's author(s).
By far the most controversial, though certainly not the largest, aspect of the UK arms trade at present is its arms sales to Israel, most of which go indirectly via the US, especially components for the F-35 combat aircraft, which Israel is using in Gaza, and of which 15% by value is made in the UK. Last September, the new Labour government suspended certain licences for use by the Israeli military, having concluded that Israel was not adhering to international law in Gaza, but made a special ‘carve-out’ from its own export licensing criteria to allow the continued indirect supply of F-35 components via the US and other partner nations. The government claimed that such indirect supplies could not be stopped without jeopardising the whole F-35 supply chain. This decision faces a legal challenge brought by Palestinian NGO Al-Haq and activist legal group GLAN, and will likely be heard in spring. The latest government submission to the court makes clear that there is no new evidence of Israeli violations in Gaza that would lead the government to change this position, an extraordinary admission, placing the UK’s international commitments under the ATT, IHL, and even the Genocide Convention as lower priority than maintaining the F-35 supply chain.
However, while the F-35 and arms sales to Israel are rightly the focus of most current attention, of far greater significance for the UK arms industry – and also raising serious questions regarding human rights, peace, and security – are prospects for sales of the Eurofighter Typhoon combat aircraft, jointly produced by BAE in the UK, Leonardo in Italy, and Airbus in Germany and Spain.
Last year, trade unions warned that production of the Typhoon at their plant in Warton, Lancashire, may end before long if there are not significant new orders, creating a gap before full-scale production of the planned 6th-generation Tempest fighter gets under way. New orders from Germany, Italy, and Spain have helped alleviate these concerns, although this will not involve final assembly in the UK. Nonetheless, both the UK government and BAE are actively pursuing export customers as well, from their traditional customer base in the Middle East - in particular, Qatar, Türkiye, and Saudi Arabia.
Qatar ordered 24 Typhoons in 2018, the last of which should be delivered in 2025, and has reportedly recently agreed to buy 12 more, although a contract has not yet been signed. It is unclear exactly what Qatar would want them for, given that it also has fleets of French Rafales and US F-15s, faces no external threats, and may lack the capacity to operate that many aircraft, is a good question. Qatar is rated by Transparency International Defence & Security as having a ‘critical’ risk of corruption in arms procurement, and given BAE’s grimy record in this area, this deal should face stringent due diligence in relation to corruption, including via possible offset deals.
Türkiye has long been seeking to modernise its combat aircraft fleet, especially since Greece recently acquired Rafales from France. Türkiye was kicked out of the F-35 programme by the US in 2019 for buying Russian air defence systems. It is now acquiring 40 F-16s instead, but is also very interested in acquiring up to 40 Eurofighters. For a long time, Germany was blocking this due to Türkiye’s human rights record and role in Syria, but has lifted this objection, and negotiations for a deal have begun.
However, the Turkish state remains highly authoritarian and repressive, especially towards its Kurdish minority. It remains in occupation of parts of north-east Syria, where it and its militia allies have been accused of serious abuses. Türkiye has continued a steady bombing campaign against Kurdish groups in both Iraq and Syria, causing high civilian casualties. Moreover, following the regime change in Syria, Türkiye may well be looking to pursue further military action against the Kurdish autonomous region of Rojava in the north-east, and indeed its allied militias have already launched attacks. The risk therefore that Eurofighters sold to Türkiye might be used in these conflicts is high.
Saudi Arabia is reportedly considering various options for increasing its combat aircraft fleet, including the Eurofighter, the Rafale, and the F-15, and most recently the Turkish domestically-produced Kaan stealth fighter currently under development. During the war in Yemen, German objections would have stopped any new sales of Eurofighters (though Germany allowed continuing supplies of spare parts for the existing Saudi fleet), but as with Türkiye, they have now lifted these objections as the truce in Yemen in place since April 2022 continues to hold.
However, the truce remains fragile, with numerous violations, and the conflict in Yemen remains far from solved. Saudi Arabia’s horrific human rights record has if anything worsened, with the country carrying out a record 345 executions in 2024. The record of corruption in UK arms sales to Saudi Arabia is also egregious.
In short, all 3 potential Middle Eastern customers for the Eurofighters raise serious red flags, although none of these will likely be of the slightest concern to the UK government, desperate as it will be to maintain the BAE production line until Tempest gets off the ground. If all goes their way, 2025 could be a bumper year for BAE, and in any event it will be a busy year for those of us seeking to advocate for ethical restraint in arms exports.
Sam Perlo-Freeman is Research Coordinator at Campaign Against Arms Trade in the UK.
Inclusion on the Forum on the Arms Trade expert list and the publication of these posts does not indicate agreement with or endorsement of the opinions of others. The opinions expressed are the views of each post's author(s).
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