On November 13, the Forum on the Arms Trade hosted an event to explore the nexus between illicit firearms and organized crime across two regions: Southeast Asia and East Africa. Hosted on the margins of the International Day Against Transnational Organized Crime, experts outlined how firearms trafficking overlaps with other crimes, examples of smuggling routes and actors involved, and regional factors that shape these dynamics. In their presentations, they provided a broad understanding of the convergences in violence and illicit economies, while identifying shared challenges and distinct patterns across the regions. During the Q&A, the experts offered valuable insights into the nuances of SALW circulation, highlighting the layered actors and factors shaping consumer–producer dynamics. Their reflections also introduced a fresh way of understanding ‘organised crime’ and ‘trafficking,’ drawing attention to the complex intersections of trade, survival, and security.
Video of the event is available at https://youtu.be/jmCZ_KK1Tuk
Video of the event is available at https://youtu.be/jmCZ_KK1Tuk
Panelists
Recommendations
Reflecting on the current gaps in policy and research, they shared the following recommendations:
1. Integrating informal networks into the analysis of illicit arms flows, not just formal ‘criminal’ actors.
In East Africa, the networks that move weapons often overlap with legitimate economic and social systems, such as livestock trading, cross-border and seasonal migration, community protection, and local governance. Effective interventions must account for these overlapping livelihood and protection networks rather than treat illicit arms flows as the work of purely criminal groups.
2. Treat illicit arms control as a governance issue, not only a law-enforcement problem.
Disruption of illicit arms flows occurs where the local authority is legitimate and trusted. Effective policy responses should therefore strengthen accountable governance in peripheral and pastoral areas where the state is either absent, lacks capacity, or is predatory. Identifying legitimate local authorities is key in this regard.
3. Improve Oversight of Financial Flows Linked to Illicit Markets
Efforts to curb illicit SALWs would benefit from stronger oversight of financial systems that enable the acquisition and movement of weapons. Support for national authorities in meeting anti–money laundering and counter-terror finance standards can help close gaps identified by international bodies. As many transactions now move through cryptocurrencies, online scams, and informal remittance systems, targeted technical assistance and partnerships with digital service providers would be useful.
4. Reduce Diversion Risks Through Stockpile Management and Localized Engagement
Limiting diversion of small arms and ammunition requires continued investment in secure stockpile management and transparent inventory systems. Capacity-building in these areas, aligned with national priorities, can help reduce accidental leakage in challenging operating environments. Engagement with local governance actors, including those involved in ceasefire arrangements, may also strengthen awareness of diversion risks in border and transit areas.
Suggested resources
* This event was inspired and led by a working group of the Forum on the Arms Trade’s emerging expert program, with more events to be announced. The Forum provides a platform for sharing of views but does not itself take a position.
- Amara Thiha, Nonresident Fellow with the China Program at the Stimson Center
- Khristopher Carlson, Senior Researcher and Project Coordinator, Small Arms Survey
- Monalisa Hazarika, Emerging Expert, Forum on the Arms Trade (moderator)*
Recommendations
Reflecting on the current gaps in policy and research, they shared the following recommendations:
1. Integrating informal networks into the analysis of illicit arms flows, not just formal ‘criminal’ actors.
In East Africa, the networks that move weapons often overlap with legitimate economic and social systems, such as livestock trading, cross-border and seasonal migration, community protection, and local governance. Effective interventions must account for these overlapping livelihood and protection networks rather than treat illicit arms flows as the work of purely criminal groups.
2. Treat illicit arms control as a governance issue, not only a law-enforcement problem.
Disruption of illicit arms flows occurs where the local authority is legitimate and trusted. Effective policy responses should therefore strengthen accountable governance in peripheral and pastoral areas where the state is either absent, lacks capacity, or is predatory. Identifying legitimate local authorities is key in this regard.
3. Improve Oversight of Financial Flows Linked to Illicit Markets
Efforts to curb illicit SALWs would benefit from stronger oversight of financial systems that enable the acquisition and movement of weapons. Support for national authorities in meeting anti–money laundering and counter-terror finance standards can help close gaps identified by international bodies. As many transactions now move through cryptocurrencies, online scams, and informal remittance systems, targeted technical assistance and partnerships with digital service providers would be useful.
4. Reduce Diversion Risks Through Stockpile Management and Localized Engagement
Limiting diversion of small arms and ammunition requires continued investment in secure stockpile management and transparent inventory systems. Capacity-building in these areas, aligned with national priorities, can help reduce accidental leakage in challenging operating environments. Engagement with local governance actors, including those involved in ceasefire arrangements, may also strengthen awareness of diversion risks in border and transit areas.
Suggested resources
- “Transnational Organized Crime – The Globalized Illegal Economy,” United Nations Office for Drugs and Crime (UNODC)
- “Illicit weapons fuelling conflicts worldwide, officials warn,” UN News, November 10, 2025
- “Firearms and Drugs: Partners in Transnational Crime”, UNODC – Flemish Peace Institute, 2024
- “Beyond legacy weapons: South East Asia’s illicit arms trade is diversifying”, Global Initiative Against Transnational Organised Crime, June 25, 2025
- Lauren Pinson, “Addressing the linkages between illicit arms, organized crime and armed conflict,” United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research (UNIDIR) and United Nations Office for Drugs and Crime (UNODC), 2022
- Nicolas Florquin, Sigrid Lipott, and Francis Wairagu, “Weapons Compass: Mapping Illicit Small Arms Flows in Africa” Small Arms Survey, January 2019
* This event was inspired and led by a working group of the Forum on the Arms Trade’s emerging expert program, with more events to be announced. The Forum provides a platform for sharing of views but does not itself take a position.
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